Election News
US Election Polls Who’s Leading in the Swing States
In less than 24 hours, voters in the United States will cast their ballots on Election Day, and the outcome of the presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is still a toss-up, according to the most recent polling.
On Monday, Harris maintained a modest nationwide lead, but Trump maintained a slight advantage in some key swing states.
As a result, the presidential campaign is down to its final push on the eve of November 5. Harris will spend the entire day Monday in Pennsylvania, with the most electoral votes out of the states, and is expected to decide the outcome of the Electoral College.
Meanwhile, Trump plans to make four stops in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He will wind up in Grand Rapids, where he spent his first two seasons.
According to the polling site 270toWin, Harris led Trump by 1% (48.3% vs. 47.3%) based on an average of 22 polls, the most recent as of November 3. That lead falls well within the margin of error.
The last New York Times/Siena survey shows that Trump and Harris are virtually tied. According to the survey, Harris is gaining ground in North Carolina and Georgia, while Trump is increasing his lead in Pennsylvania and maintaining it in Arizona.
At the state level, Trump maintained an advantage over Harris in many battleground states that would determine the election outcome. According to 270toWin, polls released Monday showed him a tiny advantage in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Harris led on Monday in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to 270 to Win.
A surprise new Iowa poll by J. Ann Selzer considered the “gold standard” pollster, finds Harris leading Trump by three points in the Hawkeye State.
Trump won Iowa easily in 2016 and 2020, and it is not one of the seven swing states that will decide this year’s election.
The poll is an aberration; an Emerson poll released Saturday had Trump up by 10 points in Iowa, but it does suggest that there may be some shocks on Tuesday. Selzer is well-known for previous surveys that correctly forecasted Trump’s 8-point lead over Joe Biden in Iowa in 2020 and his comfortable victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Swing state polls today.
Arizona Polls
According to 270toWin, an average of 15 surveys, the most recent of which was on November 3, showed Trump with a 1.6% lead over Harris. Arizona holds 11 electoral votes.
Georgia polls.
An average of 12 polls, the most recent on November 3, show Trump with a 1.2% advantage in Georgia, which holds 16 electoral votes.
Michigan polls.
An average of 20 polls, the latest November 3, show Harris a 1.5% advantage in Michigan. Michigan holds 15 electoral votes.
Nevada polls
An average of 13 surveys, the most recent on November 3, show Trump with a 0.6% advantage in Nevada, which has six electoral votes.
North Carolina Polls
An average of 15 polls, the most current on November 3, show Trump with a 1.2% advantage in North Carolina, Which holds 16 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania polls
An average of 22 surveys, the most recent on November 3, show Trump with a 0.1% lead in Pennsylvania, which holds 19 electoral votes.
Wisconsin Polls
According to an average of 14 surveys, the most recent on November 3, Harris has a 0.8% lead in Wisconsin, which has ten electoral votes.
270 to Win Election Map
Winning the 2024 presidential election will require 270 electoral votes. Click on the states on this interactive map to make your own 2024 election forecast. Create a custom match-up by clicking on the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
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