U.K News
UK Prime Minister Under Fire Over Mass Immigration Polices
The population of the UK is projected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, according to updated government estimates. This is an increase of over 100,000 people compared to previous predictions, adding pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to address immigration concerns.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) predicts a rise of 4.9 million people, or 7.3%, over the ten years from mid-2022, driven entirely by net migration as births and deaths are expected to balance out. The ONS now estimates that net migration—those entering the UK minus those leaving—will stabilize at 340,000 annually from 2027-2028, up from the previous forecast of 315,000 annually.
This follows a significant revision of net migration figures, which saw a record 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
Although net migration dropped to 728,000 in the year ending June 2024, this is still higher than earlier estimates. Such levels of migration are larger than the population of many UK cities, fueling ongoing debates about immigration’s impact on resources like housing and public services.
Stricter immigration measures
Starmer faces mounting criticism to demonstrate stricter immigration measures. Public frustration over migration peaked in the summer of 2024, marked by far-right violence targeting hotels housing asylum seekers. The previous Conservative government had introduced restrictions, including limits on dependents for students and care workers.
The current Labour administration, elected in July, has promised tougher action against illegal employers and human traffickers responsible for small boat crossings on the English Channel.
The Conservative Party’s home affairs spokesperson, Chris Philp, called the new projections “shocking and unacceptable,” stressing the need to prevent these numbers from becoming reality.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who served in government during the surge in migration, admitted her party previously “got it wrong” by being too lenient in allowing workers into the country. Philp pushed for a strict annual visa cap, significantly lower than current levels while urging investment in technology and strategies to reduce reliance on low-skilled workers. He also suggested efforts to get unemployed Britons back into the workforce.
However, cutting migration could prove challenging in sectors like health and social care, which issued 50,591 visas in the year leading up to September 2023.
Net migration stabilization
The revised population outlook could have economic advantages, potentially benefiting Chancellor Rachel Reeves. A growing population may drive a larger economy and increased tax revenue, which could help offset budget challenges. The Office for Budget Responsibility plans to factor these figures into its economic forecasts in March.
The ONS clarified that it does not aim to predict migration trends but highlighted the unpredictability involved. It also provided alternative scenarios: one where net migration stabilizes at 525,000 per year and another at 120,000.
While many see migration as a top issue, the ONS noted that an ageing population presents challenges. The number of people at state pension age is expected to grow by 1.7 million, reaching 13.7 million by mid-2032. This shift will increase government spending, particularly on pensions and healthcare.
Over the decade, deaths are projected to outnumber births by approximately 17,000. While births may surpass deaths between mid-2024 and mid-2028, this trend is predicted to reverse in mid-2029. Although the population is expected to grow faster than previously anticipated through mid-2032, the ONS forecasts 200,000 fewer people living in the UK by 2047 compared to earlier projections.
This is partly due to declining fertility rates and slightly reduced life expectancy for men, now estimated at 82 years compared to the previous 82.5. The life expectancy for women remains unchanged at 85.6 years.
