Former President Trump and Vice President Harris met for the first time as contenders at a TV debate in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, with the BBC claiming Harris won and Republicans calling the encounter a Sham.
ABC News moderators constantly fact check Trump and never once fact checked Harris.
“It was three-on-one. They continued to engage in so-called fact-checking of Donald Trump. They never did that to Kamala Harris,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told reporters.
In a CNN poll of 600 registered voters who saw the debate, 63% believed Harris performed better, while 37% supported Trump. Prior to the debate, the same voters were evenly divided over who they felt would perform better.
However, this does not necessarily convert into votes; only 4% indicated the discussion changed their opinions about who they would vote for. So we’ll have to wait and see how much impact it has on polling figures in the following days.
Endorsement of Robert F Kennedy
Harris received 47% support during her party’s four-day convention in Chicago, which she concluded on August 22 with a speech offering a “new way forward” for all Americans. Her numbers have changed very little since then.
Trump’s average has likewise been pretty stable, at around 44%, with no major boost from the endorsement of Robert F Kennedy, who withdrew his independent candidature on 23 August.
While nationwide polls can provide insight into a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not always reliable predictors of election outcomes.
That is because the United States utilises an electoral college system to determine its president, so receiving the most votes may be less essential than where they are cast.
There are 50 states in the United States, but because the majority of them almost always vote for the same party, there are only a few where both candidates have a chance to win. Battleground states are the places where elections will be won or lost.
Right now, surveys in the seven battleground states are extremely tight, making it difficult to determine who is truly winning the race. There are fewer state polls than national surveys, so we have less data to work with, and each poll has a margin of error, which means the results could be higher or lower.
Harris and Trump Tied
According to recent polls, there is less than one percentage point separating the two contenders in some states. That includes Pennsylvania, which is important because it has the most electoral votes available, making it easier for the winner to get the 270 votes required.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his way to capturing the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will likely win the election.
At the present, surveys show that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other both nationally and in battleground states – and when the election is that tight, it’s difficult to forecast winners.
Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling businesses will strive to address this issue in a variety of ways, including how to ensure that their findings reflect the makeup of the voting population.
These changes are tough to make correctly, and pollsters must still make informed predictions about other criteria such as who will really vote on November 5th.
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