Business
Trudeau Accelerates Bond Selloff Over Mass Spending Fears
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has accelerated bond selloffs, citing fears of a larger deficit over his GST giveaway. Investors were concerned he was returning to his free-spending strategy as an election loom.
On Thursday, Trudeau unveiled a C$6.3 billion ($4.5 billion) tax relief and rebate program. It includes a two-month moratorium on federal sales tax on various commodities such as Christmas trees, wine, toys, and books and a C$250 check for almost 19 million Canadians, or over half of the population.
The declaration looked to mark the end of a brief period of fiscal restraint, as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland committed to contain budget deficits to prevent stoking inflationary pressures.
Now that inflation has returned to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, policymakers have reduced the benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points since June.
Trudeau’s Liberal government sees an opportunity to dig deeper into the public purse, but some analysts believe investors are keeping a careful eye on the country’s debt.
Bonds continued to fall on Thursday following the announcement, as the 10-year benchmark yield rose 7 basis points to 3.457%. After retail data showed a rise in consumer spending on Friday, it increased by up to 3.488%.
As the Trudeau government considers additional fiscal spending, concerns about Canada’s financial situation persist.
Budget Shortfall
Freeland has yet to publish final spending and income figures for the fiscal year that ended in October. Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux predicts a deficit of C$46.8 billion, much exceeding Freeland’s self-imposed aim of a C$40 billion shortfall.
Despite promises to reduce deficits, the Trudeau government continues to increase expenditure. This year’s budget includes a new capital gains tax inclusion rate to balance the cost of new housing and social initiatives.
This sparked anger from investors and entrepreneurs but allowed Freeland to present a consistent deficit despite significant spending.
The recent declaration indicates that Trudeau’s government no longer feels restrained in its capacity to use economic stimulus to restore favor.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have led most surveys by roughly 20 points for over a year. They have pounded the prime minister on affordability and promised to reduce taxes, especially income taxes. An election is expected in late October 2025.
The sales tax break will run from December 14 to February 15. The left-wing New Democratic Party intends to support it but has stated that it will continue to advocate for its permanent implementation and expansion to include additional items.
Let the Bankers Worry
Following Trudeau’s announcement, traders in overnight swap markets reduced their bets that the Bank of Canada will drop interest rates by 50 basis points for the second time in December, lowering the odds to fewer than 25% by the end of Thursday. As of late Friday morning, the odds were less than 17%.
The announcement also encouraged several experts to improve their short-term projections for Canada’s GDP. Analysts at the Bank of Montreal predict that the country’s GDP will increase at a 2.5% annualized rate in the first three months of 2025, up from 1.7%.
Speaking to reporters on Friday, Trudeau praised his government’s approach to program expenditure, claiming it fosters optimism and possibilities for families and the middle class.
“We’re focusing on Canadians. “Let the bankers worry about the economy,” Trudeau stated.
