Niger’s NIAMEY — Analysts say regional countries are facing a legitimacy crisis as they run out of alternatives and time to restore democratic governance in Niger after the military deposed the president last month.
ECOWAS defense leaders are meeting in Ghana on Thursday to discuss Niger’s issue after a deadline passed for mutinous soldiers to release and reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum or face military action. Bazoum was deposed in July and now lives under house arrest in Niamey with his wife and son.
This is the first meeting since ECOWAS called for the deployment of a “standby force” to restore constitutional government in the country last week. It’s unknown whether or not the military will be called in. According to conflict experts, several thousand soldiers from Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin would take weeks or months to prepare.
ECOWAS has had a terrible track record in stopping the region’s frequent coups, with neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali having two within three years. The world community and ECOWAS saw Niger’s coup as one too many, and in addition to threatening a military invasion, the bloc imposed severe economic and travel bans.
However, as time passes with no military action and no progress in discussions, the junta consolidates its control, leaving ECOWAS with few options.
Countries face a legitimacy crisis as they run out of alternatives and time to restore democratic governance in Niger after the military deposed the president last month.
“ECOWAS has few good options… especially since the (junta) appears unwilling to cede to outside pressure for the time being,” said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow at the Clingendael Institute, a think tank. “An intervention could backfire and harm the organisation in a variety of ways,” he said, “while failure to extract major concessions from the (junta) could weaken the organisation politically at an already precarious time.”
The African Union’s top security body convened Monday to consider whether to approve military involvement but has yet to make its decision public.
The AU’s Peace and Security Council might overrule a military intervention if it jeopardized the continent’s overall stability. If it opposes the use of force, ECOWAS will have few legal justifications, according to Lebovich.
However, ECOWAS commissioner for peace and security Abdel-Fatau Musah told reporters on Thursday that the bloc was working with the UN on Niger’s situation and didn’t “need any approval from the Security Council to find a solution to the crisis.”
In recent years, Western countries have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into Niger, which was seen as one of the last democratic countries in the Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert with which it could collaborate to combat a growing jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Around 2,500 military personnel from France and the United States are stationed in the country, where they train soldiers and, in the case of France, perform joint operations.
Countries face a legitimacy crisis as they run out of alternatives and time to restore democratic governance in Niger after the military deposed the president last month.
Both countries have paused military activities since the coup, which, according to Sahel experts, has led to a surge in attacks.
In the largest Islamist attack in six months, at least 17 Nigerien soldiers were killed, and almost two dozen were injured in the Tillaberi region on Tuesday. Former militants told The Associated Press that active jihadis are using the coup to move around more freely and plan additional violence while Niger’s security forces are distracted in Niamey and Western aid has been blocked.
People who have fled Islamist violence and live in improvised huts in Niamey say they have had enough of the extremists. They don’t want to deal with any more problems from their neighbors.
“I beg God not to send (ECOWAS).” We lost around 600 persons as a result of terrorist brutality. “I support the military, and God bless anyone who does not love Niger,” Daouda Mounkaila added. Last year, he, his wife, and their 11 children were chased from their house in Tillaberi, one of the country’s worst-affected regions.
Others in the capital are attempting to deal with the consequences of the ECOWAS sanctions.
Countries face a legitimacy crisis as they run out of alternatives and time to restore democratic governance in Niger after the military deposed the president last month.
Niger depends on neighboring Nigeria for up to 90% of its energy, which has been partially cut off. Generators powering shops litter the streets. Restaurant operators claim they have lost customers due to their inability to keep their refrigerators cold.
Sanctions are making it difficult for relief organizations to bring food and supplies. Before the coup, according to aid organizations, more than 4 million people in Niger – a country of 25 million — required humanitarian help, a figure that is now projected to rise.
Trucks have become stranded at the borders of Benin and Nigeria. Routes through sanction-evading countries, such as Burkina Faso, are difficult since they are infiltrated with radicals.
“With the closure of land and air borders, bringing aid into the country is difficult,” said Louise Aubin, the United Nations resident coordinator in Niger. Food and immunizations may be in short supply. She is still determining how long the current stock will last.
SOURCE – (AP)
