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Market Speculation Over the Next Fed Rate Reduction Hides More Fundamental Issues.
(VOR News) – This is the best of times for someone setting US rates from a chair.
The Federal Reserve is now open to criticism from all directions since the meeting on September monetary policy concluded on Wednesday.
Given its painstaking preparation for its first cut since the epidemic, there is little question at all that it will decrease prices. Trading floors, newsroom nerds, and investment offices are rife with arguments about whether it will be cut by a half percentage point or the typical quarter-point haircut.
Head of macro and strategic asset allocation at investing company Fidelity Salman Ahmed says “the obsession has been like it’s the end of the world.”
“It looks like the market is putting pressure on the Fed.”
Arguing for a quarter-point cut from the present 5.25 percent to the 5.5% target range is really simple. Given inflation has returned to the Fed’s target and the employment market is slowing but not collapsing, it is now time to slightly ease the brakes using the standard step.
As Team “Go Large” notes, Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s comments on the “pace” of easing at the Jackson Hole conference back in the summer inadvertently set the ground for a debate on the degree of rate cuts.
More recently, quite serious people have argued for a half-point cut, including former New York Fed president Bill Dudley.
Noticing this, rate speculators suddenly shifted their predictions from a certain little cut to a respectable possibility of a significant one.
Here the Fed runs in the danger of coming across as scared. Going big on paper suggests that rate setters believe they have to fast turn around their course because they believe they have made a mistake in maintaining interest rates at their highest level in decades for too long and that it is too late to avert a recession from commencing.
Still, markets have embraced the concept of such a sizable decrease this time around. If it doesn’t horrify the markets, why not start with a bang?
The general view seems to be that they are trying to squeeze the Federal Reserve. A double chop, especially as the first action in an easing cycle, usually implies that investors believe a recession is approaching since the markets for interest rates point to more notable declines in the next year.
Studies show, meanwhile, that investors do not truly believe that. More politely, they are bluffing on this point; else, they are hedging for worst-case conditions.
Based on Bank of America’s weekly fund manager poll this week, just 11% of investors believe the US economy is likely to land gently. Still, 79% of respondents expect a more subdued slowdown. Once more the rates markets are showing their extroversion.
The greatest immediate source of difficulty for the markets will thus be Powell’s communication skills, which will be tested during the back-and-forth of the press conference following the meeting.
Would it be a fearful half-point cut to prevent catastrophe or a joyful half-point cut announcing success against inflation? Would a quarter suggest that the central bank is still terrified of inflation and is still too rigid to take chances?
The Fed’s army of relentless internet enemies is showing off their strength.
Strong possibility of volatile market fluctuations exists here. A paper published this week by the Bank of International Settlements, the think tank for big central banks, highlights “hypersensitive” market conditions brought up by this summer’s run-to-the-hills.
All of this thrill, though, hides a more important and broader statement about a change in the global asset hierarchy. Usually, the Fed shapes the global monetary policy scene. Still, the US economy is slowing down to more closely match those of other countries rather than imploding.
“Fading US exceptionalism is an important theme,” says Sam Lynton-Brown, global head of macro strategy at French bank BNP Paribas. That suggests that US GDP is larger than that of its peers, US bond yields are more than those of its peers, and US assets outperform peers is most likely going to decrease.
Though a nice diversion from other, far more significant issues and from the debate of where rates should decrease, it is nevertheless a diversion. “Once you get past the Fed, it’s going to be election risk, recession risk, or, at least we forget, inflation could come back,” Ahmed of Fidelity says.
The stakes will then be so great that today’s frantic supposition about the narcissism of small distinctions will seem meagre.
SOURCE: FT
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Man Creates Candy Cane Car to Spread Christmas Cheer
In a delightful display of holiday spirit, a local resident in North Providence, Maine, has transformed his vehicle into a candy cane delight that is capturing hearts and spreading Christmas Cheer.
Over the past 15 years, Dave Clayman has transformed a simple 1991 Toyota Camry into a rolling holiday icon that captivates everyone who encounters it.
It’s wrapped in $3,000 worth of reflective tape, the same kind used on trailer trucks. Whether parked at a mall or cruising down the highway, you can’t miss it with its candy cane decorations.
This whimsical project started with an unusual idea. When an old exercise bike landed in Clayman’s possession, he mounted it on top of his car instead of letting it gather dust in his garage.
“There’s nothing like working out in the fresh air,” Dave said. That quirky addition quickly drew eyes, inspiring him to keep going.
The car features homemade rockets built from trash cans and salad bowls, candy cane-themed hubcaps, and candy cane lights dangling from the mounted exercise bike.
The Candy Cane Car cost Clayman $3,000
To top it off, it boasts a PA system and a custom horn, making it a true sensory experience.
The candy cane car has now become a local landmark every Christmas. Parked outside Clayman’s house, it’s a favourite backdrop for people snapping photos or simply stopping to admire it.
Some visitors even share stories of seeing the car as a child, reminiscing about how it’s been a beloved part of their neighbourhood for years.
“When people see it, their mood amplifies,” Clayman explained. “If they’re happy, they become happier. If they’re upset, well, they sometimes get angrier.” But for the most part, he estimates that over 96% of people love the festive car, particularly around Christmas.
Clayman said he used to wear a Santa costume when riding in his festive car for years. A few years ago, he bought a Grinch costume and never looked back.
“It’s like a state of euphoria. Every time I get behind the wheel and people see it,” he said. “Anything that people are in a better mood, it seems to make you in a better mood. It’s a labor of love you got to be committed to it.”
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Senate Approves Social Security Fairness Act, Heads to Final Vote
(VOR News) – On Wednesday, the United States Senate Social Security passed a measure with a vote of 73-27, indicating that the legislation, which is co-sponsored by Senator Susan Collins of Maine, is likely to be implemented before the end of the year.
The law may be beneficial to personnel working in the public sector in Maine, including teachers, firefighters, and other workers.
The Social Security Fairness Act would repeal two restrictions that lower the amount of Social Security payments paid to public employees.
These regulations would be eliminated with the passage of the act. A provision known as the Windfall Elimination Provision makes it impossible for public employees who are currently receiving pensions to continue receiving them.
The Government Pension Offset, as it is commonly referred to, is designed to limit the amount of money that can be paid to the surviving spouses of recipients who are also receiving government pensions.
This problematic situation impacts Social Security benefits.”
In November 2024, the Social Security Administration reported that more than 2 million individuals, including more than 20,000 in the state of Maine, had their Social Security benefits reduced as a result of the Windfall Elimination Provision,” Collins stated in a statement that was released by her department.
In November 2024, the Government Pension Offset had an impact on more than 650,000 individuals, with more than 6,000 of those individuals residing in the state of Maine, according to the previously mentioned line of reasoning.
A vote of 327 to 75 was necessary for the measure to be approved by the House of Representatives the previous month. On Wednesday, Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader of the Senate, announced that he intended to work rapidly in order to deliver the act from the House of Representatives to the president’s desk.
As indicated by Schumer, who was speaking on the floor of the United States Senate today, “Passing this Social Security fix right before Christmas would be a great gift for our retired firefighters, police officers, postal workers, teachers, and others who have contributed to Social Security for years but are now being penalised because of their time spent serving the public.”
In the beginning, the measure was supported by two individuals: Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, and Collins, a Republican. During her speech in support of the proposal, which was made on the floor of the Senate on Wednesday afternoon, Collins stated that the idea will have a significant impact on a number of individuals, including teachers in the state of Maine.
These advantages are the direct result of the effort that they put forth. During the course of her remarks, Collins asserted that the punishment in question was both unreasonable and unacceptable.
This will strain Social Security’s already shaky budget.
In a recent examination, it was discovered that the Windfall Elimination Provision was one of the primary problems that contributed to the difficulties that the teacher workforce in Maine is experiencing, which experts are referring to as a crisis.
A poll that was conducted and released by the non-profit organisation Educate Maine found that teachers in each and every county in the state of Maine identified the provision as a hindering factor in the process of recruiting new teachers.
According to the findings of the study, “this federal policy that reduces social security payouts is a disincentive,” which implies that it is detrimental to teachers who take on additional work and discourages people from switching careers in order to become teachers.
Sharon Gallant, a retired educator who worked in Gardiner for a total of 31 years, is one of the educators that are now employed there. Prior to beginning his career as a teacher in the public school system, Gallant was employed in the business sector. He made a little contribution to the Social Security system during the entirety of this time period.
“When you move into public education, you are faced with a certain degree of punishment,” according to her statement.
In letters that Gallant sent to Collins and to Sen. Angus King of Maine, who is an independent, he urged both of them to support the concept. She stated that even if it is unsuccessful, Maine will still have a difficult time recruiting teachers because of the clause that deters them from employment.
She made the observation, “If this does not pass, then it is just another reason not to enter public service.”
SOURCE: FR
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The Federal Reserve Will Drop Key Rates, But Consumers May Not Gain Immediately.
(VOR News) – If the Federal Reserve indicates on Wednesday that interest rate reductions will proceed more gradually next year than in recent months, the United States may experience only slight alleviation from the persistently elevated costs of borrowing for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a quarter-point reduction in its benchmark rate, anticipated to decrease from around 4.6% to approximately 4.3%.
This represents the latest action undertaken, subsequent to a quarter-point cut in interest rates in November and a larger-than-usual half-point reduction in September.
The Wednesday meeting may mark a new era for the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is more inclined to adjust its monetary policy at alternate meetings, rather than at each meeting. The central bank policymakers may announce that they now expect to reduce their primary rate only two or three times in 2025, instead of the four reductions previously planned three months ago.
The Federal Reserve has utilised the rationale of a “recalibration” of ultra-high interest rates, originally aimed at curbing inflation that peaked at a four-decade high in 2022, to defend its measures thus far.
A considerable number of Federal Reserve officials contend that interest rates should not remain as elevated as they currently are, given the substantial decline in inflation. The Federal Reserve’s chosen index shows that inflation was 2.3% in October, a notable decline from the peak of 7.2% in June 2022.
Conversely, despite the swift economic growth, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for several months. The monthly retail sales statistics released by the government on Tuesday reveals that Americans, especially those with higher incomes, are inclined to spend liberally.
These trends, as per the views of several economists, suggest that further rate decreases could unduly stimulate the economy, perhaps leading to sustained high inflation.
The incoming president, Donald Trump, has advocated reducing taxes on overtime income, tips, and Social Security benefits, along with diminishing regulations in these domains.
When combined, these Federal Reserve practices can advance progress.
Alongside the threat of imposing various tariffs, President Trump has pledged to execute extensive deportations of migrants, both of which could exacerbate inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they cannot assess the potential effects of President-elect Trump’s policies on the economy or their own interest rate decisions until further information is available and the likelihood of the proposed initiatives being enacted becomes clearer.
Consequently, the result of the presidential election has predominantly led to heightened economic uncertainty up to that point.
It seems improbable that the United States would soon experience the advantages of significantly reduced loan interest rates. As of last week, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 6.6%, lower than the top rate of 7.8% recorded in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
It is quite unlikely that mortgage rates of approximately three percent, which were common for nearly a decade prior to the onset of the pandemic, would be restored in the foreseeable future.
Federal Reserve officials have indicated a deceleration in interest rate reductions as the benchmark rate nears what policymakers designate as a “neutral” rate, a one that provides neither advantages nor disadvantages to the economy.
During a recent meeting, Powell stated, “Inflation is slightly elevated, and growth is unequivocally stronger than we anticipated.” Nevertheless, the positive aspect is that we can afford to use greater caution while we persist in our pursuit of neutrality.
Most other central banks globally are likewise lowering their benchmark interest rates. This week, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year, from 3.25% to 3%.
This action was taken in reaction to the decline of inflation in the 20 euro-using countries, which has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022.
SOURCE: AP
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