According to a new Nanos poll, Canadians are three times more inclined to prefer that someone other than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lead the Liberals in the next election.
Faced with continuously low polling ratings, concerns about the prime minister’s future — and who might bid to replace him — have been circulating for months.
According to the most recent poll data, significantly more Canadians want him to leave than want him to lead the Liberal Party of Canada in the upcoming campaign.
When questioned about the upcoming federal election and the leadership of the current governing party, 56% of respondents surveyed between May 31 and June 2 indicated they’d prefer someone other than Trudeau to lead the Liberals.
Only 17% believe Trudeau should remain as Liberal leader in the next election. Another 18% stated they had no preference, and 8% were unclear.
These figures reflect a steady but progressive fall in Canadians’ support for Trudeau in recent years.
When Nanos Research polled the identical topic in December 2022, 51% said they’d prefer someone other than Trudeau to lead the Liberals. At that time, 25% supported Trudeau’s continued leadership.
Then, when asked in September and December 2023, 55% of respondents stated they’d rather have someone other than Trudeau.
Drilling down on the most recent responses, women were more inclined than males to continue to endorse Trudeau as Liberal Leader.
Only 11% of Atlantic Canadians polled said they wanted Trudeau to stay, the lowest level of support throughout the country, followed by 15% in the Prairies. British Columbian’s showed the most support for Trudeau as Liberal leader, with 23% indicating they’d want to see him lead the party in the upcoming election.
When it comes to whether someone other than Trudeau should take over, Ontario had the highest level of agreement, with 60% of those polled saying they wanted a new Liberal leader, followed by 58% in Quebec.
Over the last few months, some Liberal loyalists have publicly suggested (opens in a new tab) that the prime minister consider leaving to allow time for a leadership race, while others have downplayed leadership speculation, claiming that Trudeau still carries the Liberal brand well.
Throughout, Trudeau has stated unequivocally that he would not step down until he faces Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre at the ballot box, at the latest in October 2025.
How was the Nanos survey on Trudeau was conducted?
As part of an omnibus poll, Nanos performed an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,043 Canadians aged 18 or older between May 31 and June 2, 2024.
Participants were solicited at random by phone using live agents, and a survey was delivered online. The sample consisted of both land and cell lines from across Canada.
The results were statistically validated and weighted by age and gender using the most recent Census data, and the sample was geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. This survey has a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points (19 times out of 20). Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
