Kamala Harris Polls Better Than Joe Biden with Voters of Color and Young People

Kamala Harris appears to be more appealing to voters of colour and younger voters than Joe Biden was before dropping out of the presidential run. Harris has the potential to acquire greater support from these groups in her upcoming election against Donald Trump, as seen by 2020 outcomes.

Check out our freshly published CNN/SSRS poll. Harris has a 78% to 15% edge over Trump among black voters. In CNN polling data from April and June, Biden led by a narrower 70% to 23% among these same voters (the poll interviewed the same respondents again).

This is also true for Hispanic voters, albeit to a lesser extent. Harris has 47% to Trump’s 45%, compared to 50% for Trump and 41% for Biden among the same respondents in April and June.

Voters under the age of 35 show a similar shift. Kamala Harris currently has 47% to Trump’s 43%. In April and June, these same voters supported Trump 49% to 42% over Biden.

In some ways, none of these changes are very shocking. Biden had performed the lowest for a Democrat this century among all of these normally Democratic-leaning populations. In fact, his showing among Hispanic and Black voters was the lowest by a Democrat in more than 50 years.

Kamala Harris probably had no choice but to align with these voting blocs.

Despite the improvement, Harris’ results should leave a lot to be desired. In the final 2020 surveys, she scored at least 5 points lower than Biden among the same groups.

By the end of the 2020 campaign, Biden had an 84% to 9% lead over Trump among Black voters. Even more noteworthy is Biden’s 58%-32% lead among Hispanic voters.

Finally, even though Harris has become a meme favourite with young voters, Biden’s 60% to 31% lead over Trump by the end of the 2020 campaign is significantly larger than Harris’ current position.

(It’s worth noting that polling at this time in the 2020 campaign was similar to polling in the end.)

This may appear to be bad news for the Harris campaign, and it certainly is. Harris is unlikely to defeat the former president unless his performance in these areas improves.

The good news for Kamala Harris is that she’s gaining progress with this group in comparison to Biden’s performance earlier this year.

As Harris continues to establish herself outside of her role as Biden’s vice president, there is a good chance she will build out her own political identity, which may appeal to voters of colour and young people.

The fact that Harris outperforms Biden among voters of colour gives her the ability to open up more avenues in the Electoral College.

Biden’s route to 270 electoral votes seems restricted. He would need to dominate the northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. His polling numbers in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina were low.

If Biden had won the northern battleground states and the other Democratic-leaning states (excluding the aforementioned Sun Belt states), he would have received the 270 electoral votes required to win.

Biden underperformed in Sun Belt states because of their high proportion of Black and Hispanic voters. Kamala Harris may be able to reopen the door to new electoral paths if he performs better with those demographics.

If Kamala Harris wins all four Sun Belt battlegrounds indicated above, she will not need to carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.

Perhaps more plausible, Kamala Harris may reach 270 electoral votes by winning a combination of northern battlegrounds and Sun Belt swing states.

The bottom line is that the latest CNN poll gives the Kamala Harris campaign some hope. It’s not that Trump isn’t popular, or that Harris won’t have a difficult campaign.

Rather, Kamala Harris now has a number of avenues to success, whereas Biden’s options appeared to be narrowing rapidly.

Source: CNN