The Washington Post polling average shows that Kamala Harris‘ advantage in national surveys has increased to two percentage points against Trump. She is also increasing her lead in the Midwest, now leading Wisconsin by three points, Pennsylvania by two points, and Michigan by less than one point. While Donald Trump still leads in the Sun Belt states, Harris has dramatically narrowed the deficit.
Donald Trump currently leads in four of the seven battleground states, but will need to gain more to reach 270 electoral votes.
The Washington Post is compiling the best available national and state-level polling data and factoring in how citizens in each state voted in the previous two presidential elections to determine who voters presently favour in the presidential race.
Every state is within a standard polling error of 3.5 points and may go either way.
We’ll be updating our polling averages at least once a day. Remember, this is not a presidential forecast, but rather a snapshot of public opinion.
How have national polls evolved since January?
The national popular vote does not decide the presidential election, hence our polling averages rely mainly on state polls. However, national polls remain valuable for determining the overall state of the race. National surveys are more sensitive to changes in the broader environment than state-level polls, and our polling averages rely on them, particularly in states with limited high-quality polling. Here’s how the presidential race has evolved in national polls since January.
The polls may underestimate Harris’ or Trump’s support.
A polling average is the best way to grasp the current situation of a presidential campaign, but as prior election cycles have shown, polls are not always accurate. Consider the impact of polling errors in the last three presidential elections on our 2024 polling average.
The economy might grow better—or worse.
The economy, in addition to the candidates’ names, is one of the most important elements that could influence poll results.
This is one of the most critical concerns for voters this year. Previous elections have shown that as the economy improves, incumbent party candidates, such as Harris, perform better. If the economy worsens, the challenger—in this case, Trump—fares better. (We’re focussing on two factors: consumer sentiment, or how optimistic people are about the economy, and GDP growth per capita, or how fast the economy is rising.)
These forecasts, however, are subject to some uncertainty because to the numerous ways in which the economy could alter. However, as we approach closer to Election Day, the uncertainty in our estimates will decrease.
