Politics
Justin Trudeau Should Step Down After Humiliating By-Election Loss
Doubts about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership grew this week after his Liberal Party suffered a second humiliating loss in a by-election. Sadly the highly unpopular leader is determined to stay in office despite 78% of Canadians wanting him to step down.
According to the Economic Times, the Liberals, who have been in power for nearly nine years, lost a close election on Monday in a Montreal constituency that had previously been one of the party’s safest seats.
The result, which followed a defeat in Toronto in late June, reinforced the view that the Liberals’ chances in the next national election are bleak. The mandate for Trudeau’s minority administration expires at the end of October 2025, but an early election has become more plausible as the tiny New Democratic Party withdraws its support.
Even still, Trudeau gave no indication on Tuesday that he might step away before the next election campaign. And the party’s ability to force him out is restricted.
Trudeau Tanking in the Polls
Although polls show the Liberals will lose heavily to the official opposition right-of-center Conservatives in the next election due to dissatisfaction with inflation and the housing crisis, Trudeau and his closest aides insist he is not going anywhere and has time to help the party recover.
His major immediate difficulty is that he has lost control of the House of Commons, where the Liberals command only a small number of seats. The left-leaning NDP inked a contract in 2022 to maintain the Liberals in power, but they reneged on it this month.
The NDP boosted its vote share in Montreal while keeping a seat in Manitoba, despite a stiff Conservative assault. The Liberals face several confidence votes from legislators in the coming months, and a failure would result in an election, though the NDP may choose to keep the government afloat until it can boost its own popularity.
Maintaining a minority government is challenging, and it is unknown how far Trudeau can push his legislative program. On Monday, the Liberals announced that they will prioritise defence and citizenship issues.
Trudeau Facing Pressure to Resign
Unlike in the United States, where President Joe Biden resigned as Democratic presidential candidate in favour of Vice President Kamala Harris, Trudeau has no easy path to pass over authority.
According to one top Liberal, if polls continue to show Trudeau’s unpopularity, key ministers may pressure him to resign. However, the Liberal, who sought anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, stated that there was no assurance Trudeau, who sources describe as stubborn, would listen.
Tradition demands that a stand-in must be chosen from among parliamentarians, ruling out former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who has been considered as a prospective Trudeau replacement.
According to party custom, the interim leader does not run for permanent replacement. That might prevent cabinet heavyweights like Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne from aspiring to succeed Trudeau in the near future.
Regardless, Frank Graves, president of the Ekos polling agency, believes that changing leaders may not improve Liberal prospects.
