Politics
Justin Trudeau Needs to Read the Writing on the Wall
In October of 2022, when I started working on my book about Justin Trudeau’s government, I told my interview subjects that I thought history would judge him favourably.
It seemed to me then that Mr. Trudeau had changed the country more than Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin or Stephen Harper, and that his record could be measured against Brian Mulroney’s. Justin’s father, Pierre – who gave the country the Charter of Rights and Freedoms – is more significant, but I thought history might put Justin ahead of other recent prime ministers.
Mr. Trudeau lifted many children out of poverty, legalized marijuana, reformed the Senate (sort of), steered the country through the pandemic and managed to save the North American free-trade agreement from Donald Trump. He made progress on Indigenous reconciliation, checked rising inequality and acted to bring down emissions with a carefully designed carbon tax, which he backed resolutely through tedious legal and political battles.
Of course, he also made many mistakes, burning political capital on nonsense. The first was his trip to the Aga Khan’s island, an ethical minefield he choppered into after rejecting the advice of senior staff. There was a disastrous trip to India, with too many costume changes, a guest appearance by a Khalistani terrorist and no subsequent increase in chickpea exports.
Trudeau looks worse
Worst was the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which his office put inappropriate pressure on the attorney-general at the time, Jody Wilson-Raybould, who did not want to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to a troubled company with deep connections to the people who run the country. It brought his government to the brink of collapse, but he got past it, and all his recent predecessors had presided over scandals that were at least as bad.
That was how I saw Mr. Trudeau when I started researching the book – generally successful, in spite of many mistakes. Eighteen months later, as the book is being published, Mr. Trudeau looks worse, and the trend line ought to give him pause.
His mishandling of relations with both China and India – and his mysterious reluctance to tackle foreign interference in Canadian politics – has shaken the confidence even of natural supporters. More dangerous to him, though, is his economic leadership, or lack thereof.
In 2015, Mr. Trudeau won by promising to act for “the middle class and those working hard to join it.” He eventually lost that focus, and he responded slowly to voters’ concerns about the cost of living, leaving a huge opening for Pierre Poilievre. He has failed to effectively defend the carbon tax, such that many Canadians are now convinced it is the cause of all their problems, although it is not.
And he failed to prevent a housing crisis. He dramatically increased immigration while there was not enough housing, which should have been obvious because of all the tent encampments. Mr. Trudeau has since responded, but only after Mr. Poilievre positioned himself as the champion of young people struggling to put roofs over their heads. Mr. Trudeau can’t win an election if he can’t convince those voters that he, not Mr. Poilievre, has their backs.
Trudeau’s brand is worn out
He personally saved the Liberal Party of Canada from ruin, so Liberals are not going to now defenestrate him, Liz Truss-style, but many of his supporters hope he will declare victory and hit the speaker circuit while there may still be time for a new leader to put the house in order.
In February, when I interviewed the Prime Minister, he convinced me that he is sincere in his desire to lead the party into the next election. “I just see it as such a fundamental choice in what kind of country we are, who we are as Canadians,” he told me. “That, for me, is what I got into politics for: to have big fights like this about who we are as a country and where we’re going.”
It may serve his purposes to stay, but not the party’s. The trajectory is very bad. His brand is worn out. He can’t connect. If he runs again, the campaign will inevitably be a referendum on him, which the Conservatives are confident they can win. If he leaves, it might turn into a referendum on Mr. Poilievre, the outcome of which is harder to predict.
A few months ago, a friend of Mr. Trudeau told me that there are four people who might be able to convince him to leave: his old friend and strategist Tom Pitfield, his chief of staff Katie Telford, and cabinet ministers Marc Miller and Dominic LeBlanc. A few weeks later, Globe columnist Lawrence Martin wrote that Mr. Leblanc – who used to babysit Mr. Trudeau when they were young – is talking about running for the job, which is the kind of thing that happens when the ship is taking on water.
Mr. Trudeau has a global brand and a record he can point to with pride, and he can look forward to returning to his lucrative career as a public speaker. That would be easier if he hangs up the gloves while he’s still undefeated.
By Stephen Maher
Stephen Maher is a political journalist and the author of several books, including The Prince: The Turbulent Reign of Justin Trudeau.
Politics
Macron On Course To Lose Big As Far Right Surges In French Parliamentary Elections First Round
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party led the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, according to preliminary forecasts, while President Emmanuel Macron’s party fell to third place.
According to first IPSOS estimates, the far-right alliance led by the National Rally (RN) received 34% of the vote, followed by the left-wing alliance with 28.1%, while Macron’s party came in third with 20.3%.
Macron | Politico Image
Macron On Course To Lose Big As Far Right Surges In French Parliamentary Elections First Round
After the second round of voting next Sunday, projections indicate that the RN will win between 230 and 280 members in the 577-seat National Assembly, falling short of the 289 required for an absolute majority.
The recently created left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP), would have between 125 and 165 seats, while Macron’s Ensemble and allies would have 70 to 100.
Macron | Politico Image
Macron On Course To Lose Big As Far Right Surges In French Parliamentary Elections First Round
The forecast indicates that the RN, from which Le Pen has worked to eradicate the racism and antisemitism that flourished under her father’s decades-long leadership, is closer to power than it has ever been, with the second round of voting scheduled for next Sunday.
The RN election party in the northern town of Henin Beaumont erupted in celebration when the results were announced.
SOURCE – (CNN)
After Canada’s Liberal Party lost a terrible by-election, a Liberal MP became the first current member of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s caucus to call for him to step down.
Liberal MP Wayne Long said they needed new leadership “for the future of our party and the good the country.” “The voters have spoken loud and clear, and they want a change,” Mr. Long said from his seat in the New Brunswick legislature.
Long’s comment comes after the Liberals lost a seat in Toronto they had held since 1993 in a terrible by-election on Monday. Mr. Long has been an MP since 2015 and has said in the past that he will not be running for office again.
The National Post says that Ken McDonald, an MP from Newfoundland, responded to all of Mr. Long’s emails with “well said!”
In the past few days, other former Liberal leaders have also asked Mr. Trudeau to step down. Kate McKenna was one of them. From 2015 to 2019, she was Mr. Trudeau’s environment minister.
This party isn’t just about one person. “It’s about the values it stands for and making Canadians’ lives better,” Ms. McKenna said in a statement that she gave to the Associated Press.
It’s time for new ideas, new energy, and a new boss. The prime minister has a lot to be proud of. Christy Clark, who used to be the Liberal Premier of British Columbia, said something similar to the Toronto Star on Thursday.
“He doesn’t have the pull with voters he once had,” Ms. Clark said of the prime minister. “More importantly, he isn’t even able to motivate some of the people in the country who are most likely to vote for his party.”
Support for Trudeau Diminishing
There are a lot of reasons why Mr. Trudeau’s support has dropped a lot, including the rising cost of living. According to a new study by Ipsos for Global News, as many as 68% of Canadians want Mr. Trudeau to step down.
Also, there are more calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, but a new poll shows that the Liberal Party is already too far gone for his exit to save it. The Angus Reid Institute released a poll on Monday that showed most people were already disappointed with the Liberal Party, no matter who was in charge.
An poll found that getting rid of the unpopular prime minister might not help the party’s chances in the elections.
There are a lot of polls that show that most Canadians are already planning to vote against the Liberals. An earlier this month study by Abacus Data found that support for the Liberal Democrats was so low that the party could end up in an unheard-of fourth place in the House of Commons.
During the same time period, an Ipsos study found that 68% of people wanted Trudeau to step down as prime minister.
But Angus Reid interviewers focused on the 37% of Canadians who were still “thinking about” voting Liberal in the next election. If you asked people what was most likely to keep them from voting Liberal, only 31% said it was because they didn’t like Trudeau.
48% of those who weren’t sure were Liberal because the party “hasn’t made progress on issues I find important.”
The poll also found that the Liberal Party’s luck would probably get even worse if it was given to one of Trudeau’s likely replacements.
Freeland and Mark Carney?
According to the poll, 12 people could take over as Liberal leader. The least likely was Carolyn Mulroney, who was a cabinet member under Ontario Premier Doug Ford. The most likely was Deputy Prime member Chrystia Freeland.
Only two names were slightly more appealing than Trudeau, even among people leaning Liberal: Freeland and Mark Carney, who used to be governor of the Bank of Canada according to the National Post.
The people who were not Dominic LeBlanc, Mark Miller, or Mélanie Joly were more likely to scare away Liberal voters who knew what they were doing.
“Overall, it looks like even a new leader would not be able to win over swing voters in the near future,” the institute wrote.
Trudeau’s personal popularity helped the Liberals win the election in 2015, but for more than a year now, he’s been bad for the party’s electoral prospects.
Trudeau’s personal approval rate is at an all-time low. The Angus Reid Institute’s Trudeau Tracker last showed that only 28% of people approved of him, while 66% did not. He’s also constantly losing popularity polls to Pierre Poilievre, which didn’t happen with Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole when they were Conservative leaders before.
According to the Angus Reid Institute study, the Liberals have reached the point where they can no longer avoid losing the next election by calling for a new leader.
It’s important to note that the study was done before the shocking results of the byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s were known. On Monday, a Conservative candidate who wasn’t well known won a Toronto riding that had been one of the Liberals’ strongest seats for 31 years.
One person who watched said that the results showed that the Liberals could lose every single riding in the country in the next general election.
Source: AP, National Post
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will participate in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET.
The debate, hosted by CNN, will be the first time either candidate has been on a debate stage since 2020. The debate will also be simulcast on other networks, including CBS and CBS News 24/7 streaming.
Trump will get the final word of the night, while Mr. Biden got to choose whether he wanted the podium on the right or left side. Their microphones will be muted except when it’s their turn to speak.
Here are the details:
Who is — and isn’t — participating in the first presidential debate?
The debate will feature just the two presumptive party nominees — President Biden and former President Donald Trump.
All non-major party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., failed to qualify for the debate stage by the network’s June 20 deadline. Kennedy failed to meet the ballot access and polling requirements set by CNN.
Candidates needed to earn at least 15% support in four approved national polls and be on the ballot in enough states to be able to win 270 votes in the Electoral College — the threshold to win the presidency.
The Biden and Trump campaigns have a shared interest in keeping Kennedy off the debate stage as the independent candidate seeks to pull support from their voters and could end up having an effect in battleground states. Kennedy’s campaign said Tuesday it would host its own “debate” at the same time as the Biden-Trump showdown that will be streamed online.
Who is moderating the first 2024 presidential debate?
CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash are moderating. The network said the moderators “will use all tools at their disposal to enforce timing and ensure a civilized discussion.”
Where is the first presidential debate taking place?
Mr. Biden and Trump will debate in CNN’s Atlanta studios.
The network said there will be no studio audience “to ensure candidates may maximize the time allotted in the debate.”
What topics are on the table for the first presidential debate?
CNN has not shared what topics will be covered.
A few possible topics are: border security and immigration, which are both topics Trump has hammered the president on; abortion rights an issue that has galvanized Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. v. Wade; Trump’s felony conviction in a case related to a “hush money” payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election; the conviction of the president’s son, Hunter Biden, for his purchase and possession of a gun while he was addicted to crack cocaine; the economy; and voter concerns about the age and health of both men.
How to watch the presidential debate with cable
The debate will air on CNN, but the network is also allowing other broadcast and cable news networks to simulcast it. CBS will be among the networks simulcasting it.
Where to stream the presidential debate
Those without a cable subscription can watch it online at CNN.com or streaming on CBS News 24/7 and CBSNews.com, where it will be simulcast.
How long will the debate last?
The event will last 90 minutes and include two commercial breaks.
Campaign staff are not allowed to interact with the candidates during the breaks, the network said, preventing the president and former president from receiving feedback from aides during the hour-and-a-half debate.
When will the next 2024 debates take place?
Mr. Biden and Trump have agreed to one more debate, which will be hosted by ABC News on Sept. 10.
Plans for the two events came together quickly after the Biden campaign last month proposed two debates to be hosted by news organizations. The Trump campaign accepted, but pushed for more than the two events.
They are bypassing a longtime tradition of three meetings organized by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which has overseen presidential debates since 1988. The commission’s three debates were scheduled to take place in September and October at universities in Texas, Virginia and Utah.
A vice presidential debate could take place either July 23 or Aug. 13.
The Biden campaign accepted CBS News’ invitation to participate in the debate, saying those dates work for Vice President Kamala Harris’ schedule. Trump has yet to name a running mate, but the invite was also extended to his campaign.
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