Politics
Trailing in Polls by Double Digits Justin Trudeau is Running Out of Time
Justin Trudeau is running out of time, according to Politico, he is losing ground in the polls despite his best efforts to turn around the Liberal Party of Canada and his public persona. He has been trailing in polls by double digits for nearly a year.
The future for the once-popular prime minister is so bleak that even old guard Liberals have suggested he resign and give someone else a chance. Trudeau has less than 17 months until he must hold an election against a resurgent Conservative Party and its firebrand populist leader, Pierre Poilievre.
The problem is that nothing he’s done to boost his standing among Canadians has worked.
“The Liberals have tried to basically throw the political kitchen sink at the Conservatives to find a way to narrow the gap,” said Nik Nanos, one of the country’s leading pollsters.
Trudeau’s issues are similar to those of President Joe Biden and certain Western European leaders dealing with populist rage in a world still fighting to recover from inflation and lingering anger over pandemic lockdowns.
The G7’s longest-serving leader also faces some unique challenges, including disenchantment with the Liberal Party after three mandates and a string of scandals that have harmed Trudeau’s reputation. Quito Maggi, a pollster with Mainstreet Research, believes that many Canadians have simply tuned out the prime minister.
“It’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t scenario for Trudeau because it almost doesn’t matter what he does or says right now,” Maggi stated. “No one is listening. It’s not the message, but the messenger.
Rumors of Trudeau Resigning
Trudeau’s efforts have included arranging visits to Canada for Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who earned a standing ovation in Parliament. “None of these things have changed the trend,” Nanos stated.
At this moment, talk about Trudeau’s resignation is just that – neither the prime minister nor any of his aides or allies have stated that he intends to stand aside.
But the moment he says he’s leaving, he becomes a lame duck and the leadership competition begins — so it’s in his best advantage to wait as long as possible before saying anything else.
Some believe the window for that choice is dwindling, with only a month or two remaining. Otherwise, a new leader would not have enough time to prepare for the impending election, which might occur any time before the fall of 2025.
Interviewers grill Trudeau on whether he actually intends to stay at the helm when the ship sinks. Nonetheless, he asserts at every opportunity that he intends to stay the course.
“The stakes are so high, and the moment is so real,” Trudeau explained on the “Freakonomics Radio” podcast.
Spoiling for a battle
If anything, the prime minister appears encouraged by the impending clash with Poilievre, who has harnessed and fueled political dissatisfaction by telling Canadians that their country is “broken” and it’s all Trudeau’s fault.
In a talk-show appearance earlier this year, Trudeau framed the next election as a war against “easy populism, anger, and division that is so running rampant in every society around the world.”
“I could not be the person I am and choose to step away from this fight right now.”
Poilievre Flying in the Polls
Poilievre Flying in the Polls
Trudeau’s political origin tale revolves around the outcome of a boxing fight in 2012, in which he exceeded expectations by defeating a muscular senator in the ring. Ask any Liberal in Canada, even the most depressed, and they’ll tell you he performs better when he’s under pressure.
And he is eager to face off against his competitor, which appears to delight his inner pugilist.
Poilievre, a populist attack dog leader who is flying in the polls, represents the very politics and principles that Trudeau hates.
“Here’s someone who really, really cranks [Trudeau’s] gears, that he believes he can defeat,” said a former top Liberal who requested anonymity to talk freely. “He sees someone who’s actively going to undo everything he’s tried to achieve.”
Trudeau and his party attempted to link Poilievre to Trump by citing similarities in their rhetorical style and political playbooks, and pounced after Poilievre received an endorsement from conspiracy theorist Alex Jones.
The slogan-per-minute Conservative warriors have spent the past year successfully making the Liberal government a punching bag for its confusing carbon tax and a nationwide housing crisis that has afflicted the same voters who first swept Trudeau into power.
Poilievre’s Conservatives harass, goad, and taunt the Liberals to call an early election, as well as take shots at anyone they believe could be the next in line for Trudeau’s role as Liberal Party leader.
Trudeau Leadership
Proposed Leadership Review
If the previous, more centrist Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, had not been fired following the last election, Trudeau might have been more willing to call it quits, according to the former top Liberal.
For months, the country’s political elite have speculated about who could succeed Trudeau, with establishment Liberals even saying the quiet part aloud.
Sen. Percy Downe, a former senior aide to former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, called on Trudeau to resign last year, a statement that landed hard. Former finance minister John Manley likened Trudeau’s tenure to that of Seinfeld: a brilliant program for nine seasons but unable to secure a tenth.
Earlier this year, a lesser-known MP, Ken McDonald, broke ranks and proposed a leadership review, casting doubt on internal trust in Trudeau
There is no obvious successor to the leader who propelled his party from third to first place in the 2015 federal election, making switching horses a risky proposition.
“[Trudeau’s] group has completely stifled any kind of nurturing of that sort and not tolerated any dissent,” Maggi stated.
Potential replacements keep coming up in news coverage amid frenetic conjecture, but for a party historically known for its infighting, no one has tried to push him over the edge.
“Back in 2015, when he took over the party, [Trudeau] changed the party to more of a movement,” Nanos stated. “It’s hard to see a scenario where there would be a public dump-Trudeau movement.”
Mark Carney a Favorite
Mark Carney in the Running
Big personalities in the Liberal camp are interested in the top position, but none have the whole set of x-factors that made Trudeau’s candidacy so compelling: celebrity status, narrative arc, political dynasty, and top-tier retail politics game — the rizz.
“It’s not like, oh, boom, if Trudeau is replaced by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, it’ll be neck and neck. “It’s not working that way right now,” said Maggi, one of the pollsters who surveyed the public about prospective alternatives.
But someone will have to take Trudeau’s place at some point.
Freeland has the most name recognition among the group, but the Conservatives, hoping to win points in parliamentary discussions, have positioned Mark Carney, a former central banker in both Canada and the United Kingdom, as the next in line after Trudeau.
Trudeau’s close buddy, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who supported his leadership run in 2013 and has recently returned to work after having a leave of absence due to a rare cancer, is the latest name to circulate in the city.
However, in the lack of signs of significant organization, much of the discussion appears to be speculative and ill-conceived.
Pressure is on.
Trudeau has spent the last year trying to dig himself out of his hole.
He hired a new advertising expert who is familiar with millennials and Generation Z, two critical populations he has to draw into his party’s fold if he wants to stand a chance.
Trudeau recently pulled up his sleeves and traveled across the country for an extraordinary, weeks-long campaign-style unveiling of a significant spending proposal focused squarely at those two categories and their financial struggles.
ABACUS Poll
The needle is still not moving
That has led him on a unique tour of the podcast circuit, looking for long-form interviews where he can explain himself and sell his tax-and-spend budget in a more relaxed setting than the hardball scrums with reporters outside Parliament.
He still has alternatives for attempting to reset the standings: shake up his Cabinet and top staff, change direction on spending measures, and launch a barrage of attack advertising.
According to Spark Advocacy pollster Bruce Anderson, those who are tired of Trudeau and gravitate toward his opponent are not stuck in their ways.
“I see the market as being unsettled,” he stated. “According to our polling, many people want a less-right alternative to Poilievre and a less-left alternative to Justin Trudeau. This is one of the challenges that I believe his progressive agenda has created for him and his party over time.
Trudeau’s plight will only worsen in the fall if his support rating does not improve, financing dwindles, his caucus fractures, and more parliamentarians announce that they will not run again.
“If the Liberal Party found itself in a situation a year from now, when it was 25 points behind in the polls, do I believe they would get together in caucus on a Wednesday and say, ‘Yeah, let’s just keep going in this direction’? That is not how I believe the chemistry of politics works.
Source: Politico
Politics
Macron On Course To Lose Big As Far Right Surges In French Parliamentary Elections First Round
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party led the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, according to preliminary forecasts, while President Emmanuel Macron’s party fell to third place.
According to first IPSOS estimates, the far-right alliance led by the National Rally (RN) received 34% of the vote, followed by the left-wing alliance with 28.1%, while Macron’s party came in third with 20.3%.
Macron | Politico Image
Macron On Course To Lose Big As Far Right Surges In French Parliamentary Elections First Round
After the second round of voting next Sunday, projections indicate that the RN will win between 230 and 280 members in the 577-seat National Assembly, falling short of the 289 required for an absolute majority.
The recently created left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NFP), would have between 125 and 165 seats, while Macron’s Ensemble and allies would have 70 to 100.
Macron | Politico Image
Macron On Course To Lose Big As Far Right Surges In French Parliamentary Elections First Round
The forecast indicates that the RN, from which Le Pen has worked to eradicate the racism and antisemitism that flourished under her father’s decades-long leadership, is closer to power than it has ever been, with the second round of voting scheduled for next Sunday.
The RN election party in the northern town of Henin Beaumont erupted in celebration when the results were announced.
SOURCE – (CNN)
After Canada’s Liberal Party lost a terrible by-election, a Liberal MP became the first current member of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s caucus to call for him to step down.
Liberal MP Wayne Long said they needed new leadership “for the future of our party and the good the country.” “The voters have spoken loud and clear, and they want a change,” Mr. Long said from his seat in the New Brunswick legislature.
Long’s comment comes after the Liberals lost a seat in Toronto they had held since 1993 in a terrible by-election on Monday. Mr. Long has been an MP since 2015 and has said in the past that he will not be running for office again.
The National Post says that Ken McDonald, an MP from Newfoundland, responded to all of Mr. Long’s emails with “well said!”
In the past few days, other former Liberal leaders have also asked Mr. Trudeau to step down. Kate McKenna was one of them. From 2015 to 2019, she was Mr. Trudeau’s environment minister.
This party isn’t just about one person. “It’s about the values it stands for and making Canadians’ lives better,” Ms. McKenna said in a statement that she gave to the Associated Press.
It’s time for new ideas, new energy, and a new boss. The prime minister has a lot to be proud of. Christy Clark, who used to be the Liberal Premier of British Columbia, said something similar to the Toronto Star on Thursday.
“He doesn’t have the pull with voters he once had,” Ms. Clark said of the prime minister. “More importantly, he isn’t even able to motivate some of the people in the country who are most likely to vote for his party.”
Support for Trudeau Diminishing
There are a lot of reasons why Mr. Trudeau’s support has dropped a lot, including the rising cost of living. According to a new study by Ipsos for Global News, as many as 68% of Canadians want Mr. Trudeau to step down.
Also, there are more calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, but a new poll shows that the Liberal Party is already too far gone for his exit to save it. The Angus Reid Institute released a poll on Monday that showed most people were already disappointed with the Liberal Party, no matter who was in charge.
An poll found that getting rid of the unpopular prime minister might not help the party’s chances in the elections.
There are a lot of polls that show that most Canadians are already planning to vote against the Liberals. An earlier this month study by Abacus Data found that support for the Liberal Democrats was so low that the party could end up in an unheard-of fourth place in the House of Commons.
During the same time period, an Ipsos study found that 68% of people wanted Trudeau to step down as prime minister.
But Angus Reid interviewers focused on the 37% of Canadians who were still “thinking about” voting Liberal in the next election. If you asked people what was most likely to keep them from voting Liberal, only 31% said it was because they didn’t like Trudeau.
48% of those who weren’t sure were Liberal because the party “hasn’t made progress on issues I find important.”
The poll also found that the Liberal Party’s luck would probably get even worse if it was given to one of Trudeau’s likely replacements.
Freeland and Mark Carney?
According to the poll, 12 people could take over as Liberal leader. The least likely was Carolyn Mulroney, who was a cabinet member under Ontario Premier Doug Ford. The most likely was Deputy Prime member Chrystia Freeland.
Only two names were slightly more appealing than Trudeau, even among people leaning Liberal: Freeland and Mark Carney, who used to be governor of the Bank of Canada according to the National Post.
The people who were not Dominic LeBlanc, Mark Miller, or Mélanie Joly were more likely to scare away Liberal voters who knew what they were doing.
“Overall, it looks like even a new leader would not be able to win over swing voters in the near future,” the institute wrote.
Trudeau’s personal popularity helped the Liberals win the election in 2015, but for more than a year now, he’s been bad for the party’s electoral prospects.
Trudeau’s personal approval rate is at an all-time low. The Angus Reid Institute’s Trudeau Tracker last showed that only 28% of people approved of him, while 66% did not. He’s also constantly losing popularity polls to Pierre Poilievre, which didn’t happen with Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole when they were Conservative leaders before.
According to the Angus Reid Institute study, the Liberals have reached the point where they can no longer avoid losing the next election by calling for a new leader.
It’s important to note that the study was done before the shocking results of the byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s were known. On Monday, a Conservative candidate who wasn’t well known won a Toronto riding that had been one of the Liberals’ strongest seats for 31 years.
One person who watched said that the results showed that the Liberals could lose every single riding in the country in the next general election.
Source: AP, National Post
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will participate in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election on Thursday at 9 p.m. ET.
The debate, hosted by CNN, will be the first time either candidate has been on a debate stage since 2020. The debate will also be simulcast on other networks, including CBS and CBS News 24/7 streaming.
Trump will get the final word of the night, while Mr. Biden got to choose whether he wanted the podium on the right or left side. Their microphones will be muted except when it’s their turn to speak.
Here are the details:
Who is — and isn’t — participating in the first presidential debate?
The debate will feature just the two presumptive party nominees — President Biden and former President Donald Trump.
All non-major party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., failed to qualify for the debate stage by the network’s June 20 deadline. Kennedy failed to meet the ballot access and polling requirements set by CNN.
Candidates needed to earn at least 15% support in four approved national polls and be on the ballot in enough states to be able to win 270 votes in the Electoral College — the threshold to win the presidency.
The Biden and Trump campaigns have a shared interest in keeping Kennedy off the debate stage as the independent candidate seeks to pull support from their voters and could end up having an effect in battleground states. Kennedy’s campaign said Tuesday it would host its own “debate” at the same time as the Biden-Trump showdown that will be streamed online.
Who is moderating the first 2024 presidential debate?
CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash are moderating. The network said the moderators “will use all tools at their disposal to enforce timing and ensure a civilized discussion.”
Where is the first presidential debate taking place?
Mr. Biden and Trump will debate in CNN’s Atlanta studios.
The network said there will be no studio audience “to ensure candidates may maximize the time allotted in the debate.”
What topics are on the table for the first presidential debate?
CNN has not shared what topics will be covered.
A few possible topics are: border security and immigration, which are both topics Trump has hammered the president on; abortion rights an issue that has galvanized Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. v. Wade; Trump’s felony conviction in a case related to a “hush money” payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election; the conviction of the president’s son, Hunter Biden, for his purchase and possession of a gun while he was addicted to crack cocaine; the economy; and voter concerns about the age and health of both men.
How to watch the presidential debate with cable
The debate will air on CNN, but the network is also allowing other broadcast and cable news networks to simulcast it. CBS will be among the networks simulcasting it.
Where to stream the presidential debate
Those without a cable subscription can watch it online at CNN.com or streaming on CBS News 24/7 and CBSNews.com, where it will be simulcast.
How long will the debate last?
The event will last 90 minutes and include two commercial breaks.
Campaign staff are not allowed to interact with the candidates during the breaks, the network said, preventing the president and former president from receiving feedback from aides during the hour-and-a-half debate.
When will the next 2024 debates take place?
Mr. Biden and Trump have agreed to one more debate, which will be hosted by ABC News on Sept. 10.
Plans for the two events came together quickly after the Biden campaign last month proposed two debates to be hosted by news organizations. The Trump campaign accepted, but pushed for more than the two events.
They are bypassing a longtime tradition of three meetings organized by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which has overseen presidential debates since 1988. The commission’s three debates were scheduled to take place in September and October at universities in Texas, Virginia and Utah.
A vice presidential debate could take place either July 23 or Aug. 13.
The Biden campaign accepted CBS News’ invitation to participate in the debate, saying those dates work for Vice President Kamala Harris’ schedule. Trump has yet to name a running mate, but the invite was also extended to his campaign.
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