Global Inflation Pressures Could Become Harder To Manage In Coming Years, Research Suggests

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. Trade restrictions are rising. Population ageing. A broad shift away from carbon-emitting fossil fuels and towards renewable energy.

The predominance of such tendencies could exacerbate global inflation pressures in the coming years, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve and other central banks to fulfill their inflation targets.

This was a recurring topic in several high-profile speeches and economic research delivered Friday and Saturday at the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The global economy has been moving towards deeper integration for decades, with goods flowing more freely between the United States and its trading partners. Lower-wage production elsewhere allowed Americans to enjoy low-cost items while keeping inflation low despite losing many American industrial jobs.

That tendency, however, appears to be reversing since the outbreak. Global firms are relocating their supply chains away from China. Instead, They are attempting to make more items in the United States, particularly semiconductors, which are critical in creating automobiles and electrical goods, with the encouragement of substantial subsidies from the Biden administration.

Simultaneously, large-scale expenditures in renewable energy could be disruptive by boosting government borrowing and demand for raw materials, raising inflation. The world’s population is aging, and older people are less likely to continue working. These changes could operate as supply shocks, comparable to how shortages of products and labor drove inflation during the pandemic recession’s recovery.

Global Inflation Pressures Could Become Harder To Manage In Coming Years, Research Suggests

“The new environment sets the stage for larger relative price shocks than we saw before the pandemic,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in a speech Friday. “If we face both higher investment needs and greater supply constraints, we are likely to see stronger price pressures in commodity markets, particularly for metals and minerals critical to green technologies.”

This would complicate the work of the ECB, the Fed, and other central banks tasked with controlling price hikes. Almost all central banks are still fighting to contain the excessive inflation that began in early 2021 and has just partially abated.

“We live in a world where we can expect more and possibly larger supply shocks,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, in an interview. “All of these things tend to make production more difficult and expensive.” And that is undoubtedly the combination that central banks despise the most.”

The changing trends in global trade patterns drew the greatest attention during Saturday’s Jackson Hole summit sessions. According to research by Laura Alfaro, an economist at Harvard Business School, China’s proportion of US imports declined 5% from 2017 to 2022 following decades of expansion. Her analysis ascribed the fall to US tariffs and the attempts of significant US corporations to locate alternative sources of goods and parts after China’s epidemic shutdowns hampered output.

Those imports were mostly from nations like Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan, which have better relations with the US than China – a trend known as “friendshoring.”

Global Inflation Pressures Could Become Harder To Manage In Coming Years, Research Suggests

Despite these developments, US imports reached an all-time high in 2022, indicating that total commerce remains strong.

“We are not deglobalizing yet,” Alfaro explained. “As trade patterns shift, we are witnessing a looming ‘Great Reallocation.'”

She also mentioned that there are early signs of “reshoring,” or the return of certain manufacturing to the United States. According to Alfaro, the United States is importing more parts and unfinished goods than before the pandemic, indicating that final assembly is taking place in the country. According to her, the fall in manufacturing jobs in the United States appears to have peaked.

However, Alfaro emphasized that these developments come with drawbacks: in the last five years, the cost of goods from Vietnam has climbed by approximately 10%, and items from Mexico have increased by about 3%, adding to inflationary pressures.

She also stated that China has increased its investment in manufacturing in Vietnam and Mexico. Furthermore, other countries that ship goods to the United States import components from China. These events indicate that the United States’ economic connections with China have remained strong.

At the same time, some global factors may act in the opposite direction, lowering inflation in the future years. One of these factors is slowing growth in China, the world’s second-largest economy after the US. With its economy in shambles, China will buy less oil, minerals, and other commodities, putting downward pressure on world prices.

Global Inflation Pressures Could Become Harder To Manage In Coming Years, Research Suggests

During a discussion on Saturday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while China’s stuttering growth is “disappointing,” it is primarily due to mounting defaults in the country’s bloated property sector rather than changes in trading patterns.

Ueda also criticized the United States’ growing use of subsidies to encourage domestic manufacturing during the last two years.

“The widespread use of industrial policy around the world may simply result in inefficient factories,” Ueda added, because they may not be positioned in the most cost-effective locations.

And World Trade Organisation Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala defended globalization while criticizing growing subsidies and trade obstacles. She claimed that global commerce frequently restrains inflation and has considerably reduced poverty.

“Predictable trade,” she explained, “is a source of disinflationary pressure, lower market volatility, and increased economic activity.”Economic fragmentation would be excruciating.”

SOURCE – (AP)