Finance
Wall Street May Get Much Worse In 2023 Before Getting Better
NEW YORK — The worst may yet befall the stock market.
Since mid-October, Wall Street has recovered some of the index’s sharp losses from the year’s first ten months. It closed Monday just under 4,000, up more than 10% from its low two months earlier.
Many analysts predict that stocks will end 2023 in this range, if not slightly higher, after the Federal Reserve finally stops raising interest rates to bring high inflation under control. But, before we get there, much of Wall Street expects stock prices to fall sharply in the interim.
Morgan Stanley To Drop Lower Than The Previous Record
Consider Morgan Stanley’s prediction that the S& P 500 will fall to between 3,000 and 3,300 during the first three months of the new year. That means it could lose up to a quarter of its value from Monday’s close. The low end of that range would also be 37.5% lower than the early 2022 record.
The bank’s pessimism stems from its strategists forecasting much lower corporate profits than the rest of Wall Street. Businesses are feeling revenue pressure as manufacturing, and other sectors of the economy weaken. At the same time, Morgan Stanley predicts that profits will be squeezed on the other end due to higher wage costs as businesses increase their workforce.
Wall Street Profits Set To Fall To Record Levels
Corporate profits are expected to fall below record levels beginning in 2022, allowing companies to return more cash to investors through dividends and stock buybacks.
To be sure, strategists led by Michael Wilson believe the S& P 500 could end 2023 at 3,900, not far from its current level.
Goldman Sachs strategists predict a trough in the year’s first half, possibly at 3,600. That represents a nearly 10% drop from Monday’s close, based on Goldman Sachs’ belief that the economy can avoid a recession.
If the economy does contract, as many Wall Street analysts predict, Goldman strategists led by David Kostin believe the S&P 500 could fall to 3,100.
Strategists at Deutsche Bank predict that the United States will enter a recession in the second half of 2023. The S&P 500 could fall to 3,250 before bottoming out about halfway through the recession, which the German bank expects to last until the end of the year. The S&P 500 could then end the year as high as 4,500 if stocks follow their usual playbook during recessions, according to strategists led by Binky Chadha.
SOURCE – (AP)
Finance
Common Pitfalls to Avoid in Future and Option Trading
Options Trading involves buying and selling financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, or commodities to profit from price fluctuations. Understanding common mistakes in this area is crucial to avoid significant financial losses. Hence, seamless trading is essential for maximizing profits and minimizing risks.
Many traders fall into similar traps, leading to preventable errors that could have been avoided with the proper knowledge. This article outlines critical future and options trading pitfalls and provides strategies to prevent them. By reading this, you will be better equipped to navigate the complexities of the market and achieve tremendous trading success.
Overleveraging: A Double-Edged Sword
Overleveraging is a common pitfall that can lead to catastrophic results if the market moves against your position. However, one of the most enticing aspects of such trading is the ability to use leverage. It allows you to control a more prominent position with relatively little capital, potentially amplifying your profits.
This double-edged sword can just as quickly magnify your losses. Many traders get caught up in the allure of potential profits and forget that the same leverage that can boost gains can also wipe out an account in minutes. Setting strict leverage limits and using risk management tools like stop-loss orders can help mitigate this risk.
Ignoring Market Volatility When Trading: A Risky Oversight
Volatility measures market uncertainty, and understanding it can be the difference between profit and loss. Ignoring or underestimating market volatility is a pitfall that can lead to unexpected and often severe losses. The value of options, in particular, is susceptible to changes in volatility, making it crucial for traders to understand and anticipate market swings.
To navigate this effectively, traders should regularly monitor market conditions and use volatility indicators to inform their strategies. Adapting your trading approach to different volatility environments can help you capitalize on opportunities while minimizing risks.
Failing to Diversify: Do not Put All Your Eggs in One Basket
Diversification is fundamental in any investment strategy, yet it is often overlooked in futures and options trading. Focusing too heavily on a single asset or market can expose you to unnecessary risk.
A well-diversified portfolio significantly reduces the impact of poor-performing investments and helps maintain stability; a sudden adverse movement in one sector can lead to a substantial loss if your portfolio is not diversified.
To avoid this pitfall, ensure your trading strategy includes a variety of assets and sectors. Whether you are trading commodities, indices, or equities, spreading your investments can buffer against market volatility and enhance your overall portfolio stability.
Neglecting Continuous Education: Knowledge is Power
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is neglecting continuous education. Future and options trading is complex, and staying informed about contemporary trends, strategies, and market news is crucial for success. Ongoing learning ensures that you remain adaptable and prepared for any market conditions.
Investing time in education can significantly improve your trading performance. Attend seminars, read books, follow market analysts, and consider taking courses on advanced trading strategies. The more you know, the better equipped you will be to navigate the complexities of trading.
Seamless futures and options trading enhance financial freedom by ensuring smoother transactions, reducing risks, and maximizing profits. By mastering futures and options trade techniques, you can make informed decisions that lead to financial stability.
To achieve your financial goals, you must acknowledge and rectify the abovementioned mistakes. With the appropriate approach, you can navigate the world of trading precisely. So, stay informed and trade wisely.
Finance
Crypto And Meme Stock Boosters Aren’t Doing ‘Trump Trades’ — They’re Just Doing Trades
Bitcoin bulls and meme stock traders are excited about the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency. Or at least the possibility of conducting some momentum trading in the next 18 days.
Here is the deal: Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, surged briefly to a three-month high above $68,000 on Wednesday, fueled by a combination of signals, including the former president’s statement on X that “crypto is the future” and Vice President Kamala Harris’ nod Monday to regulatory support for digital assets.
At the same time, Trump Media shares were recovering from Tuesday’s inexplicable 10% dip and resumed their meme-stock-like trend of rising without any fundamental cause to do so. The stock closed Wednesday up more than 15%.
Crypto And Meme Stock Boosters Aren’t Doing ‘Trump Trades’ — They’re Just Doing Trades
What do digital currencies and media stocks have in common?
Not much generally. However, in recent weeks, they appear to have shifted in tandem with traders’ estimates of Trump’s reelection chances.
To be clear, these traders do not have a crystal ball; they are simply wagering, with varied degrees of skill, on highly volatile assets.
Crypto traders are ecstatic at the Republican nominee’s apparent 180 on an asset class he previously branded as a fraud. Even if Tuesday’s launch of Trump-backed cryptocurrency platform World Liberty Financial revealed lukewarm interest and numerous technical issues, the former president has spent months recruiting industry billionaires and generally telling devotees what they want to hear.
That enthusiasm skyrocketed Wednesday when Trump extended his lead over Harris on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-focused predictions website where you can wager on the election outcome. According to those investors, Trump has a 59% probability against Harris’ 41%. (This is drastically out of line with national polls, including CNN’s “Poll of Polls,” which currently show a near tie.)
“As the election approaches, voting estimates may cause market swings,” says Robinhood’s senior director of investment strategy, Steph Guild. Bitcoin may gain from Trump’s improved odds, she said, “given that he is seen as more friendly to crypto in general.”
Aside from the election prediction game, Adrian Fritz, global head of research for crypto business 21shares, tells me that bitcoin, a bellwether for the broader crypto market, is being propelled by other macro tailwinds. Not least, central banks around the world are lowering interest rates, making risky assets such as cryptocurrency more appealing. Plus, it’s #Uptober, a month when digital assets have historically performed well.
“It’s no surprise that it became way more political on both sides,” Fritz points out. “The positive aspect is that it draws attention to the entire space…” We firmly believe that, regardless of who wins, the outcome will be beneficial to the industry.
According to Barron’s journalist Al Root, the equivalent of all DJT shares available for sale has changed hands multiple times in the last week, with investors hanging onto the stock for an average of only two days. For instance, Root observes that Apple shares take more than a year to fully turn over.
Crypto And Meme Stock Boosters Aren’t Doing ‘Trump Trades’ — They’re Just Doing Trades
That level of volatility makes cryptocurrency appear stable in comparison, but it attracts a certain type of iron-stomach trader looking to purchase on the rise and sell before it peaks. (Sounds simple, but your investment adviser might tell you you’d be better off going to a casino, where you could have a great cocktail and enjoy playing cards while losing money.)
Fritz thinks that momentum plays are “absolutely” happening. “This affects both consumers and professional investors. “The basis trade is one of the most popular bitcoin strategies,” he stated.
(In other words, hedge funds are leveraging up to execute complicated trades that take advantage of slight price variations between bitcoin’s spot price and futures market pricing, increasing trading volume even further.)
Bottom line: Bitcoin and Trump Media may get considerably more volatile in the coming weeks as more traders enter the market. However, if analysts or voters are looking to the market for clues as to how this presidential election will play out, keep in mind that traders will trade. While some sincere believers may be investing in supposedly pro-Trump assets, the great majority are simply working the casino floor, hoping to cover their bets and gain a few bucks.
SOURCE | AP
Finance
Economist Warns Over Canada Slipping into a Cashless Society
Canadian economist Carlos Castiblanco believes that Canada should follow in the footsteps of other countries and enact legislation to protect the use of cash in the country.
Castiblanco, together with the group Option Consommateurs, is urging the Trudeau government to follow the lead of other jurisdictions in the United States and Europe in enacting legislation to slow the transition to a cash-less society.
He stated that barely 10% of transactions in Canada now use cash, and that Canada must defend cash now before more merchants begin to refuse it totally.
It is vital to act now, he told CBC Radio’s Ontario Today, before businesses begin removing all of the infrastructure required to handle and manage actual cash.
“They are already used to dealing with cash, so this is the moment for the Trudeau government to act, before it is more complicated.”
A recent online poll of almost 1,500 people commissioned by a different group, Payments Canada, discovered that the majority of respondents were concerned about the potential of cashless stores and preferred to keep the ability to use cash.
Bank fees in Canada
Above all, cash has no bank fees, is not vulnerable to privacy breaches, and may be utilized during internet outages.
The Payments Canada paper, “Social policy implications for a less-cash society,” suggests legislative action, saying that cash-based transactions have decreased from 54% in 2009 to 10% by 2021.
Aftab Ahmed, one of its writers, explained who would be most affected by a cashless future in a recent piece for Policy Options, the Institute for Research on Public Policy’s online magazine.
“For many Canadians, including Indigenous people, homeless people, aging citizens, and others who are vulnerable, cash is both a beacon of economic stability and a source of financial insecurity. “Cash is an emergency lifeline and a symbol of cultural traditions,” Ahmed explained.
“Canada must avoid sleepwalking into a cashless future and instead recognize the risk of exacerbating financial exclusion of those most vulnerable.”
Refusing to accept cash
The currency issue has already caught fire outside of Canada, according to Castiblanco, with some US states and territories beginning to pass legislation to preserve access to cash.
In 2019, Philadelphia became the first city in North America to prohibit “any person selling or offering for sale consumer goods or services at retail from refusing to accept cash as a form of payment.”
Other U.S. cities, including New York, Seattle, and Los Angeles, have since taken action on the issue.
In New York, the policy recommends fines of up to $1,500, with the Councillor who proposed the guidelines claiming that prohibiting cashless transactions preserves privacy, equity, and consumer choice.
European countries such as Norway, Spain, and Ireland have enacted similar legislation. In Ireland, the rule would mandate cash transactions at companies like as pharmacies and grocery stores that supply basic goods and services.
Source: CBC
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