Trump and Harris Tied In New 2024 Election Polls

The latest poll indicates that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead-heat race for the White House. This is the third major national poll to find the two tied, rendering the race wildly unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.

The Emerson College Polling survey (October 23-24), published on Saturday, had a margin of error of 3, and the two candidates tied at 49%. This is the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris has not enjoyed a lead since August. One week earlier, Harris was leading 49% to 48%.

Siena Trump Harris Poll

In the Times/Siena poll released on Friday, Trump and Harris are 48% among likely voters (margin of error 2.2). The Times notes that these results are “not encouraging” for Harris, as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections despite losing the White House.

The poll indicates a decrease in Harris’s support since The Times’ previous poll in early October, which indicated that she had a 49%-46% lead over Trump. However, at least three surveys conducted within the past week have indicated that Trump has a slight advantage, and six others have found Harris to be in the lead.

Trump Harris CNN Poll

The CNN/SSRS poll released on Friday (margin of error 3.1) also shows that the candidates are dead even at 47%. This represents a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups’ September survey. Before President Biden withdrew from the race, the poll found that Trump had 49% and Harris 46%.

CNBC Survey on Trump Harris

Trump’s lead in a CNBC survey of registered voters released on Thursday (margin of error 3.1) and a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll released on Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) has increased from 47% to 45% in August to 48% to 46%. This represents a significant shift in Trump’s favor since August when Harris held a 47% to 45% lead in a Journal survey.

Harris X/Forbes released a survey on Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) that indicates Trump is leading Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, among prospective voters nationwide, including those who are leaning toward one candidate. Additionally, Trump is ahead by one point, 49% to 48%, without leaners.

Several other recent polls have indicated that Harris is in the lead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters, conducted from October 17-21 and released on Wednesday, Harris maintains a 47%-44% lead over Trump among respondents who indicated that they “definitely” or “probably” intended to vote for one of the candidates. 4% of respondents selected “other,” and 5% selected no candidate.

In an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters, which was also released on Wednesday (margin of error 3), Harris is up by three points, 49% to 46%, when third-party candidates are on the ballot, and respondents are given the options of choosing “other,” “not sure,” or “would not vote.” This represents a one-point decrease in her lead from the group’s previous survey, conducted from October 12-15.

In Morning Consult’s weekly poll, which was released on Tuesday, Harris maintains a four-point advantage, 50% to 46%, consistent with the previous week’s results. However, this is a decrease from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls conducted before the previous week.

Since announcing her candidacy on July 21, Harris has eliminated Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden. However, according to Five Thirty-Eight’s weighted polling average, her advantage has marginally decreased over the past two months, reaching a high of 3.7 points in late August.

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