South Africa Braces for a Milestone 2024 Election

After 30 years of dominating South Africa politics, the ruling African National Congress will confront its most difficult election this month, with most opinion surveys predicting it will lose its parliamentary majority for the first time.

The ANC’s reputation, once admired under Nelson Mandela’s leadership and regarded as a beacon of hope by the Black majority following the fall of apartheid in 1994, has been tarnished by record levels of unemployment, widespread poverty, the collapse of some government services, and more than a decade of corruption scandals, leaving voters disillusioned.

President Cyril Ramaphosa is hoping for re-election on May 29. However, if the ANC loses its majority, it would be forced to form a government in a coalition, which would be a first for the country and might complicate governing in Africa’s most sophisticated economy.

South Africans do not directly elect their president, but rather vote for parties that are allotted seats in Parliament based on their share of the ballot. Following that, lawmakers select the head of state.

Ramaphosa was a major member in the ANC in the early 1990s, and he was once considered Mandela’s apprentice. He left politics to become a successful businessman before returning to serve as South Africa’s deputy president in 2014. He became president in 2018 when Jacob Zuma resigned amid corruption charges.

Ramaphosa has tried to repair the ANC’s credibility by cracking down on government corruption. However, during his president, unemployment has climbed to 32%, the highest in the world, and he has struggled to reduce poverty.

Electricity Crisis in South Africa

An electricity crisis has caused 62 million power outages across the country as a result of problems at the state-run electricity supplier. It had a negative impact on the economy and Ramaphosa’s reputation as someone who could solve South Africa’s problems, even though the blackouts were caused by mismanagement during the Zuma administration.

The ANC is still projected to win the most votes, but if it obtains less than 50%, it will require coalition partners to reelect Ramaphosa, who is 71 years old.

John Steenhuisen leads the Democratic Alliance, the largest opposition party. The centrist DA has claimed to “rescue” South Africa from the ANC’s corruption and ineptitude, but has yet to win a national election. The DA received 22% of the vote in the last national election in 2019, while the ANC won 62%.

The DA reached a pre-election deal with smaller opposition parties, thinking that their combined vote would secure a majority and depose the ANC. However, they would all need to dramatically expand their share, which is considered implausible.

Economic Freedom Fighters

Steenhuisen, 48, is the sole white leader among South Africa’s major political parties. In a society where race remains at the forefront of national awareness, critics argue that the DA serves the interests of the white minority more than the 80% of South Africans who are Black.

Since its founding in 2013 by Julius Malema, a former ANC youth leader ousted from the ruling party, the Economic Freedom Fighters have risen quickly to become South Africa’s third largest party in Parliament.

His fiery, far-left language has made the 43-year-old South African politician the most divisive, but his argument that the ANC has failed poor, Black South Africans has found momentum, particularly among unemployed and disenfranchised youth.

The EFF has advocated for mine nationalization and land transfer to poor Blacks. The party, which adheres to Marxist doctrine, claims that economic disparity based on race persists decades after apartheid, with whites generally wealthy and Blacks impoverished.

Security concerns for the 2024 election

Malema and other EFF MPs have frequently interrupted opponents’ speeches in Parliament and gotten into scuffles with security personnel, bringing a militant brand of politics to the heart of South Africa’s democracy. The EFF is a potential coalition partner for the ANC, while neither party has stated whether there is an agreement.

Former President Zuma added a fresh dimension when he declared in December that he would leave the ANC he once commanded and return to politics with a new party.

Zuma’s MK Party is unlikely to threaten the top three, but it is expected to severely diminish the ANC vote just as the ruling party confronts its most difficult electoral test. The 81-year-old former leader continues to command support, particularly in his home region of KwaZulu-Natal.

His reemergence has also raised security concerns for the election, as his conviction for contempt of court and subsequent prison sentence in 2021 sparked a week of rioting and looting that resulted in the deaths of over 350 people in South Africa’s worst violence since apartheid’s final days.

Zuma is battling in court over whether his criminal history bans him from running for Parliament. There is concern about unrest if he gets disqualified. Even if he isn’t, his new reputation as an agitator is sure to exacerbate tensions ahead of a key election.

Source: AP

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