France’s Right-Wing National Rally Party Poised to Win in France

On the last day of voting before Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections, France’s conservative National Rally (RN)grew its lead, in an opinion poll that put it close to a majority.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party has been ahead in the polls since President Emmanuel Macron called an unexpected election this month. The election has caused France to be uncertain and has scared its European neighbors and the financial markets.

Les Echos newspaper released a new Opinion Way poll on Friday that showed the National Rally could get as much as 37% of the vote. This is two percentage points more than the poll’s previous score from last week.

The expected vote total for Macron’s moderate Together party was 20%, which is two points less than the previous report. The left-wing group New Popular Front had the same 28% of the vote as before.

In a different poll put together by Elabe, BFM TV found that the RN and its allies could get between 260 and 295 seats in the new parliament. This would put them over the 289-seat threshold needed for an absolute majority, which would give them a clear mandate to rule.

It’s hard to make accurate seat projections because the outcome rests on how 577 constituencies across France vote. Also, after Sunday’s first round, candidates who are against the RN may work together to pull their names from the race in order to beat far-right candidates in the second round on July 7.

To win in the first round, a candidate needs to get an absolute majority of the votes cast as well as votes from at least 25% of the eligible voters in the district. It’s hard to do this, and most districts have to go to a second round of voting. The winner in the second round is the person who got the most votes.

The idea of either an RN-led government or a split parliament has scared the financial markets. On Friday, the risk premium on French government bonds rose to its highest level since the euro zone crisis in 2012.

If the National Rally won the election outright, they would have to “cohabit” with Macron for the rest of his term, until 2027. This would be the first time that a French president had to share power with a party that is not part of the major political party.

National Rally’s Anti – EU Views

The RN has toned down some of its anti-EU views and promised to be responsible with money, but it’s still not clear how it will pay for its election promises or what its strong doubts about the EU will mean for its future unity.

Racism is at the heart of the party’s “French first” policies, even though Le Pen is trying to clean up the party she received from her racist father, Jean-Marie.

In the last TV debate on Thursday, Macron’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said that his RN opponent Jordan Bardella was still letting racist speech happen in his far-right camp. Bardella denied the allegation.

The party has done well because people are angry at Macron. Macron’s choice to run for president in 2017 as the leader of a new, broad-based centrist movement changed French politics and was meant to stop the rise of radical parties.

People say that he made changes that were good for business, but many French voters think that he didn’t care about their worries about the rising cost of living and worsening public services.

Le Pen hinted at the kinds of fights that living together might cause on Friday when she said that an RN prime minister would block Macron’s choice for the French official at the European Commission in Brussels.

She told Europe 1 radio, “The prime minister, not the president, is the one who gets to choose the French commissioner.” A foreign source said Thursday that Macron backed Thierry Breton for a new term. Breton is a former businessman who now oversees the internal markets at the Commission.

Source: Reuters

People Also Reading:

France’s Macron Calls Snap Election After Huge Losses in EU Elections

Global Unemployment to Decline Slightly In 2024 – UN Agency Reports

Pakistan’s Top Court Acquits Imran Khan of Leaking State Secrets Charge