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Canada’s Housing Bubble Could Spell Disaster for Trudeau
According to experienced strategists, Canada’s housing market is in danger of collapsing since it has one of the greatest housing bubbles in history. The degree of debt that Canadians have taken on in contrast to their earnings has left many in a perilous situation if mortgage rates continue to climb, which is likely, according to Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, in an interview on Tuesday.
“Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time,” he said.
Colmar suggested that inflated housing prices in Canada are a result of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy providing easy money for two decades for a variety of reasons. Currently, he sees risk in mortgage rates rising as Canadian bond yields rise, especially at a time when debt-to-income ratios are sky high.
“The worst part for a housing bubble is when you have [a] credit bubble underneath it,” Colmar cautioned. The amount of Canadian indebtedness in the system against income is tremendous — and debt servicing has increased dramatically.”
While Canadian banks are doing their lot to keep the property market from collapsing, Colmar predicts it will.
There is clearly a risk that if mortgage rates rise, unemployment rises, or we enter the next recession, this thing will wind up in a deleveraging cycle, he added.
Trudeau Hasn’t Helped in Canada’s Soaring Housing Cost
The rising cost of housing in Canada has become a key electoral issue for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as his main opponent focuses on generational frustrations over affordability.
This summer, Trudeau has played defence on the problem, naming a new housing minister and diverting some of the burden to other levels of government. However, with Trudeau’s party already slipping in recent surveys, housing has become a serious vulnerability for him.
“Failure to appear to be doing enough on housing could be politically disastrous for the Liberals,” David Coletto, CEO of polling firm Abacus Data told Bloomberg.
The issue is especially crucial for Canadians under 40, a critical group that Trudeau’s party could not have won the last two elections without, according to Coletto. His firm’s most recent survey showed Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives leading the Liberals by ten points.
The average price of a home in Canada has more than quadrupled in the last decade, reaching $760,600 (US$572,470) in June. Trudeau’s government, which took office in 2015, has also steadily increased yearly immigration targets, with more than one million people coming last year, putting a strain on an already scarce housing supply.
Poilievre has pounded Trudeau on the issue, concentrating on young people’s rage. He told reporters outside the Parliament building in Ottawa on Tuesday that Canada’s home affordability is among the worst in the world.
“Rent has more than doubled,” he remarked. “Mortgage payments have doubled.” Down payments were required and doubled. All of this comes after eight years of Justin Trudeau.”
To be fair, rising housing costs have many causes outside of Trudeau’s control. Provinces and cities, which are in charge of land-use planning, zoning, and permitting, are to fault, as are real estate investors, overseas buyers, years of low loan rates, and other issues.
Nonetheless, Canada’s aggressive immigration ambitions have outpaced housing construction, exacerbating the demand-supply imbalance. In the year to March, 4 to 5 international migrants landed in Canada for every new unit of housing construction that began. That is the highest ratio of new Canadians to new residences in statistics dating back to 1977.
Poilievre, on the other hand, dodged reporters’ inquiries on whether he will lower immigration targets on Tuesday.
Former Liberal member Adam Vaughan, who assisted in the development of Trudeau’s $82 billion national housing policy, said that the country is better off now than it would have been without his party’s policies. He claims that if the government had done nothing, federal spending on social housing would have been merely $1 billion this year.
More needs to be done, he says, and time would be better spent concentrating on solutions across levels of government rather than laying blame. Trudeau’s remark on Monday that housing is not a fundamental federal priority was “problematic,” according to Vaughan.
“It is a responsibility of the federal government, if not literally, then politically, and I would argue that it is morally,” said Vaughan, who now works at public relations firm Navigator.
According to Mike Moffatt, senior policy and innovation director at the Smart Prosperity Institute, the federal government has a number of instruments at its disposal to address the housing shortfall without increasing its debt.
These approaches include focusing immigration policy on construction workers, electricians, and others who could help increase housing supply, as well as postponing international student visa approvals until provinces order universities to provide additional accommodation for them.
If the government does act, “they had better act quickly because time isn’t on their side, and there’s a chance that one of the opposition parties could really start to own this issue,” Moffatt said.
Former Trudeau policy director Marci Surkes believes the government is working on a housing strategy as a core component of its fall budget update.
“This is ground that the Liberal Party should be occupying and owning,” said Surkes, who currently works as an adviser for the Compass Rose Group. “At this point, they should have been making more tangible progress.” And yet, given the economic circumstances, whatever progress has been made to date does not feel sufficient.”
The New Democratic Party’s Jagmeet Singh, whose party has agreed to support the Liberal minority government in Parliament, said on Tuesday that Trudeau’s “finger-pointing” will not fix the housing crisis, despite the fact that all levels of government bear some responsibility.
“We can’t ignore the significant levers that the federal government has,” he remarked. “The levers are so significant that I would say the federal government has incredible powers to actually solve this problem if they choose to do so.”
News
Man Creates Candy Cane Car to Spread Christmas Cheer
In a delightful display of holiday spirit, a local resident in North Providence, Maine, has transformed his vehicle into a candy cane delight that is capturing hearts and spreading Christmas Cheer.
Over the past 15 years, Dave Clayman has transformed a simple 1991 Toyota Camry into a rolling holiday icon that captivates everyone who encounters it.
It’s wrapped in $3,000 worth of reflective tape, the same kind used on trailer trucks. Whether parked at a mall or cruising down the highway, you can’t miss it with its candy cane decorations.
This whimsical project started with an unusual idea. When an old exercise bike landed in Clayman’s possession, he mounted it on top of his car instead of letting it gather dust in his garage.
“There’s nothing like working out in the fresh air,” Dave said. That quirky addition quickly drew eyes, inspiring him to keep going.
The car features homemade rockets built from trash cans and salad bowls, candy cane-themed hubcaps, and candy cane lights dangling from the mounted exercise bike.
The Candy Cane Car cost Clayman $3,000
To top it off, it boasts a PA system and a custom horn, making it a true sensory experience.
The candy cane car has now become a local landmark every Christmas. Parked outside Clayman’s house, it’s a favourite backdrop for people snapping photos or simply stopping to admire it.
Some visitors even share stories of seeing the car as a child, reminiscing about how it’s been a beloved part of their neighbourhood for years.
“When people see it, their mood amplifies,” Clayman explained. “If they’re happy, they become happier. If they’re upset, well, they sometimes get angrier.” But for the most part, he estimates that over 96% of people love the festive car, particularly around Christmas.
Clayman said he used to wear a Santa costume when riding in his festive car for years. A few years ago, he bought a Grinch costume and never looked back.
“It’s like a state of euphoria. Every time I get behind the wheel and people see it,” he said. “Anything that people are in a better mood, it seems to make you in a better mood. It’s a labor of love you got to be committed to it.”
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Senate Approves Social Security Fairness Act, Heads to Final Vote
(VOR News) – On Wednesday, the United States Senate Social Security passed a measure with a vote of 73-27, indicating that the legislation, which is co-sponsored by Senator Susan Collins of Maine, is likely to be implemented before the end of the year.
The law may be beneficial to personnel working in the public sector in Maine, including teachers, firefighters, and other workers.
The Social Security Fairness Act would repeal two restrictions that lower the amount of Social Security payments paid to public employees.
These regulations would be eliminated with the passage of the act. A provision known as the Windfall Elimination Provision makes it impossible for public employees who are currently receiving pensions to continue receiving them.
The Government Pension Offset, as it is commonly referred to, is designed to limit the amount of money that can be paid to the surviving spouses of recipients who are also receiving government pensions.
This problematic situation impacts Social Security benefits.”
In November 2024, the Social Security Administration reported that more than 2 million individuals, including more than 20,000 in the state of Maine, had their Social Security benefits reduced as a result of the Windfall Elimination Provision,” Collins stated in a statement that was released by her department.
In November 2024, the Government Pension Offset had an impact on more than 650,000 individuals, with more than 6,000 of those individuals residing in the state of Maine, according to the previously mentioned line of reasoning.
A vote of 327 to 75 was necessary for the measure to be approved by the House of Representatives the previous month. On Wednesday, Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader of the Senate, announced that he intended to work rapidly in order to deliver the act from the House of Representatives to the president’s desk.
As indicated by Schumer, who was speaking on the floor of the United States Senate today, “Passing this Social Security fix right before Christmas would be a great gift for our retired firefighters, police officers, postal workers, teachers, and others who have contributed to Social Security for years but are now being penalised because of their time spent serving the public.”
In the beginning, the measure was supported by two individuals: Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, and Collins, a Republican. During her speech in support of the proposal, which was made on the floor of the Senate on Wednesday afternoon, Collins stated that the idea will have a significant impact on a number of individuals, including teachers in the state of Maine.
These advantages are the direct result of the effort that they put forth. During the course of her remarks, Collins asserted that the punishment in question was both unreasonable and unacceptable.
This will strain Social Security’s already shaky budget.
In a recent examination, it was discovered that the Windfall Elimination Provision was one of the primary problems that contributed to the difficulties that the teacher workforce in Maine is experiencing, which experts are referring to as a crisis.
A poll that was conducted and released by the non-profit organisation Educate Maine found that teachers in each and every county in the state of Maine identified the provision as a hindering factor in the process of recruiting new teachers.
According to the findings of the study, “this federal policy that reduces social security payouts is a disincentive,” which implies that it is detrimental to teachers who take on additional work and discourages people from switching careers in order to become teachers.
Sharon Gallant, a retired educator who worked in Gardiner for a total of 31 years, is one of the educators that are now employed there. Prior to beginning his career as a teacher in the public school system, Gallant was employed in the business sector. He made a little contribution to the Social Security system during the entirety of this time period.
“When you move into public education, you are faced with a certain degree of punishment,” according to her statement.
In letters that Gallant sent to Collins and to Sen. Angus King of Maine, who is an independent, he urged both of them to support the concept. She stated that even if it is unsuccessful, Maine will still have a difficult time recruiting teachers because of the clause that deters them from employment.
She made the observation, “If this does not pass, then it is just another reason not to enter public service.”
SOURCE: FR
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The Federal Reserve Will Drop Key Rates, But Consumers May Not Gain Immediately.
(VOR News) – If the Federal Reserve indicates on Wednesday that interest rate reductions will proceed more gradually next year than in recent months, the United States may experience only slight alleviation from the persistently elevated costs of borrowing for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a quarter-point reduction in its benchmark rate, anticipated to decrease from around 4.6% to approximately 4.3%.
This represents the latest action undertaken, subsequent to a quarter-point cut in interest rates in November and a larger-than-usual half-point reduction in September.
The Wednesday meeting may mark a new era for the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is more inclined to adjust its monetary policy at alternate meetings, rather than at each meeting. The central bank policymakers may announce that they now expect to reduce their primary rate only two or three times in 2025, instead of the four reductions previously planned three months ago.
The Federal Reserve has utilised the rationale of a “recalibration” of ultra-high interest rates, originally aimed at curbing inflation that peaked at a four-decade high in 2022, to defend its measures thus far.
A considerable number of Federal Reserve officials contend that interest rates should not remain as elevated as they currently are, given the substantial decline in inflation. The Federal Reserve’s chosen index shows that inflation was 2.3% in October, a notable decline from the peak of 7.2% in June 2022.
Conversely, despite the swift economic growth, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for several months. The monthly retail sales statistics released by the government on Tuesday reveals that Americans, especially those with higher incomes, are inclined to spend liberally.
These trends, as per the views of several economists, suggest that further rate decreases could unduly stimulate the economy, perhaps leading to sustained high inflation.
The incoming president, Donald Trump, has advocated reducing taxes on overtime income, tips, and Social Security benefits, along with diminishing regulations in these domains.
When combined, these Federal Reserve practices can advance progress.
Alongside the threat of imposing various tariffs, President Trump has pledged to execute extensive deportations of migrants, both of which could exacerbate inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they cannot assess the potential effects of President-elect Trump’s policies on the economy or their own interest rate decisions until further information is available and the likelihood of the proposed initiatives being enacted becomes clearer.
Consequently, the result of the presidential election has predominantly led to heightened economic uncertainty up to that point.
It seems improbable that the United States would soon experience the advantages of significantly reduced loan interest rates. As of last week, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 6.6%, lower than the top rate of 7.8% recorded in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
It is quite unlikely that mortgage rates of approximately three percent, which were common for nearly a decade prior to the onset of the pandemic, would be restored in the foreseeable future.
Federal Reserve officials have indicated a deceleration in interest rate reductions as the benchmark rate nears what policymakers designate as a “neutral” rate, a one that provides neither advantages nor disadvantages to the economy.
During a recent meeting, Powell stated, “Inflation is slightly elevated, and growth is unequivocally stronger than we anticipated.” Nevertheless, the positive aspect is that we can afford to use greater caution while we persist in our pursuit of neutrality.
Most other central banks globally are likewise lowering their benchmark interest rates. This week, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year, from 3.25% to 3%.
This action was taken in reaction to the decline of inflation in the 20 euro-using countries, which has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022.
SOURCE: AP
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