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Canada’s Top 5 Banks Dump Assets as Recession Looms

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1 year ago

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Canada's Top 5 Banks Dump Assets as Recession Looms

As Canada’s economy enters into a recession, the main banks are attempting to reinforce their balance sheets against mounting bad loans, but instead of turning to shareholders for funding, analysts predict the lenders may sell non-core assets.

With the economy slowing and fewer jobs being added, banks anticipate that more individuals would fail on credit card and mortgage payments, reducing earnings.

Banks have typically raised capital by issuing shares or bonds, but with the stock prices of the top five banks down between 5% and 11.5% this year, they believe that additional equity dilution is not the best option.

“Canadian banks are running a little bit tighter on capital than they have in the past,” Adrienne Young, director of corporate credit research at Franklin Templeton Canada, explained.

“What they would much rather do is… find small non-core assets that they’re not going to grow very aggressively anytime soon and say, right, it has done its job for us, moving on.”

Last month, Bank of Nova Scotia returned to Canadian Tyre its ownership investment in the retailer’s financial services section, raising C$895 million ($650 million), while Bank of Montreal is shutting down its indirect vehicle lending business and apparently considering to sell its RV loan portfolio.

While shareholders and analysts declined to mention specific assets, they stated that banks may be able to sell portions of their loan books, which might be appealing to fixed-income investors and private equity firms.

Since 2000, the five Canadian banks have spent around C$147 billion on acquisitions, acquiring credit-card portfolios, wealth and asset management organisations, and smaller regional banks in the United States and elsewhere as part of their expansion objectives.

In August, Scotiabank, which has a CET1 ratio of 12.7%, stated that it was preparing for a higher capital requirement.

Some experts have speculated that Royal Bank of Canada may need to raise cash as it nears the completion of its acquisition of HSBC’s domestic operations, but the bank has stated that the merger will be completed smoothly.

Following the completion of the HSBC Canada transaction, RBC expects its CET1 ratio to remain above 12%.

According to Anthony Visano, head of investment analysis at investment firm Kingwest & Co., freezing dividend growth could reduce the need to sell assets.

Bank of Canada Rate Hikes

Meanwhile, more interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada are still on the table, as its governing council is divided on whether rates need to be raised further.

The central bank issued a summary of deliberations today, outlining the conversations that governing council members had in the run-up to its Oct. 25 rate decision. The summary shows that members of the governing council are divided on whether interest rates are high enough.

“Some members believed that raising the policy rate would be more likely than not necessary to return inflation to target.” Others saw the most plausible scenario as one in which a 5% policy rate would be sufficient to return inflation to the 2% objective if it remained at that level for a long enough period of time,” according to the summary.

The Bank of Canada finally opted to remain patient, but members of the governing council agreed to reconsider whether rates needed to climb further.

The head of the Bank of Canada, stated this week that companies are normally hesitant to raise their prices for fear of losing customers, but strong inflation has made them considerably more eager to do so recently, without fear of consumers tapping out.

The Canadian inflation rate dipped to 3.8% in September, although underlying pricing pressures have not eased significantly in recent months.

The central bank notes that core inflation measurements, which exclude volatile price movements, have maintained in the 3.5 to 4.0 percent range over the last year.

The Bank of Canada’s governing board attributed the Bank’s continued high inflation to a variety of causes, including rising housing prices.

The central bank’s interest rate increases are largely to blame, as they have resulted in higher mortgage interest rates for Canadians.

However, the central bank has stated that other shelter costs remain high, owing to housing market imbalances.

“Higher interest rates would normally exert downward pressure on house prices and other costs that are closely linked to house prices, such as maintenance, taxes and insurance,” according to the Bank of England.

“However, the economy’s ongoing structural shortage of housing supply was keeping house prices elevated.” And Canada’s rapid population growth had exacerbated the existing housing supply-demand imbalance.”

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Business

Trudeau Accelerates Bond Selloff Over Mass Spending Fears

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2 days ago

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2024-11-23

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Trudeau, Bond Market
Trudeau accelerated a bond selloff due to expectations of faster growth and a deeper deficit

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has accelerated bond selloffs, citing fears of a larger deficit over his GST giveaway. Investors were concerned he was returning to his free-spending strategy as an election loom.

On Thursday, Trudeau unveiled a C$6.3 billion ($4.5 billion) tax relief and rebate program. It includes a two-month moratorium on federal sales tax on various commodities such as Christmas trees, wine, toys, and books and a C$250 check for almost 19 million Canadians, or over half of the population.

The declaration looked to mark the end of a brief period of fiscal restraint, as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland committed to contain budget deficits to prevent stoking inflationary pressures.

Now that inflation has returned to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, policymakers have reduced the benchmark interest rate by 125 basis points since June.

Trudeau’s Liberal government sees an opportunity to dig deeper into the public purse, but some analysts believe investors are keeping a careful eye on the country’s debt.

Bonds continued to fall on Thursday following the announcement, as the 10-year benchmark yield rose 7 basis points to 3.457%. After retail data showed a rise in consumer spending on Friday, it increased by up to 3.488%.

As the Trudeau government considers additional fiscal spending, concerns about Canada’s financial situation persist.

Budget Shortfall

Freeland has yet to publish final spending and income figures for the fiscal year that ended in October. Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux predicts a deficit of C$46.8 billion, much exceeding Freeland’s self-imposed aim of a C$40 billion shortfall.

Despite promises to reduce deficits, the Trudeau government continues to increase expenditure. This year’s budget includes a new capital gains tax inclusion rate to balance the cost of new housing and social initiatives.

This sparked anger from investors and entrepreneurs but allowed Freeland to present a consistent deficit despite significant spending.

The recent declaration indicates that Trudeau’s government no longer feels restrained in its capacity to use economic stimulus to restore favor.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have led most surveys by roughly 20 points for over a year. They have pounded the prime minister on affordability and promised to reduce taxes, especially income taxes. An election is expected in late October 2025.

The sales tax break will run from December 14 to February 15. The left-wing New Democratic Party intends to support it but has stated that it will continue to advocate for its permanent implementation and expansion to include additional items.

Let the Bankers Worry

Following Trudeau’s announcement, traders in overnight swap markets reduced their bets that the Bank of Canada will drop interest rates by 50 basis points for the second time in December, lowering the odds to fewer than 25% by the end of Thursday. As of late Friday morning, the odds were less than 17%.

The announcement also encouraged several experts to improve their short-term projections for Canada’s GDP. Analysts at the Bank of Montreal predict that the country’s GDP will increase at a 2.5% annualized rate in the first three months of 2025, up from 1.7%.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Trudeau praised his government’s approach to program expenditure, claiming it fosters optimism and possibilities for families and the middle class.

“We’re focusing on Canadians. “Let the bankers worry about the economy,” Trudeau stated.

Related:

Canada’s Budgetary Watchdog Warns Over Trudeau’s Spending

Canada’s Budgetary Watchdog Warns Over Trudeau’s Spending

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Forced Sale Google Chrome Could Fetch $20 Billion

Published

3 days ago

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2024-11-21

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Sale Google Chrome

Antitrust officials in the US could force the sale of Google’s Chrome browser for up to $20 billion, demonstrating the tremendous worth of the world’s most popular web browser.

Bloomberg Intelligence attributes Chrome’s projected worth to its more than 3 billion monthly active users. The US Department of Justice is preparing to request a federal judge order the browser’s separation from Google’s parent company, Alphabet.

Chrome’s worth comes from its overwhelming 61% market share and its crucial role in Google’s advertising ecosystem. User data enables businesses to better target adverts, and the browser also acts as an important distribution mechanism for Google’s AI technologies.

Industry analysts think it may be difficult to find a suitable buyer. While tech behemoths like Amazon could finance the purchase, they would likely face regulatory scrutiny.

AI businesses, such as OpenAI, may emerge as more viable contenders. They could potentially leverage Chrome to broaden their reach and develop an advertising business.

“It’s not directly monetizable,” one analyst told Bloomberg. “It functions as a gateway to other things. It’s unclear how you would assess that in terms of pure revenue generation.”

Google opposes prospective sales, claiming that they will hamper innovation. The firm does not break out Chrome’s revenue individually in its financial filings, even though the browser’s user data plays an important part in the company’s principal revenue stream, advertising.

The DOJ’s suggestion follows Judge Amit Mehta’s August decision that Google had illegally monopolized the search industry. The judge will consider the recommended remedies at a two-week hearing in April 2024, with a final judgment due in August 2025.

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Bitcoin Has Set a New Record And Is Approaching $100,000.

Published

4 days ago

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2024-11-21

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Bitcoin

(VOR News) – Bitcoin broke beyond the $98,000 mark for the first time on Thursday as investors awaited Donald Trump’s second term as president. All of this happened during the day. As such, cryptocurrency has reached a significant turning point.

According to Coin Metrics, the top cryptocurrency was trading at $97,541.61 during the most recent trading session. Merchants provided this information. This suggests a price gain of more than three percent during the previous trading session.

When the period began, Bitcoin peaked at $98,367.00.

During the premarket trading session, MicroStrategy, a platform that facilitates cryptocurrency foreign exchange trading and serves as a bitcoin proxy, saw a 13% gain. Coinbase, on the other hand, had a 2% rise during that period. Furthermore, all of these increases occurred simultaneously.

The market value of Mara Holdings increased by 9%, which helped raise the valuation of mining companies overall. This was among the factors that led to the total rise.

Because of the widespread belief that President Trump will usher in a new era of prosperity for cryptocurrencies, one marked by more favorable laws and the possible creation of a national strategic bitcoin reserve, the price of Bitcoin has been rising steadily this month.

The most recent change brought about by the increase was the consequence of higher financing rates and more open interest in the futures market during Asian trading hours. The rise was the catalyst for this change. This action was prompted by the ensuing rush.

Throughout its lifespan, this legislation was the catalyst for this change for a variety of reasons. At the same time, spot market premiums decreased, according to CryptoQuant statistics. All of this happened at the same time.

Furthermore, a number of short liquidations have been sparked by the recent spikes in Bitcoin’s price, which has caused the price to rise overnight. As a result, the price has gone up much more. As a result, the total number of short liquidations has increased.

According to CoinGlass, these liquidations have effectively produced more than $88 million in capital during the last 24 hours.

Rob Ginsberg, an analyst at Wolfe Research, noted in a study released on Wednesday that “historically, following previous movements of this magnitude, Bitcoin has either entered a consolidation phase or disregarded the overbought condition as investors accumulate.” This phrase relates to the fact that this particular move has happened before.

Ginsberg stated this in reference to the evolution of Bitcoin over time.

Ginsberg’s answer makes reference to Bitcoin’s propensity to go through a period of consolidation. The comment also made reference to this.

He said, “Considering we are emerging from an extended consolidation phase and the price has reached a new high, it suggests that the pursuit is underway.”

The crucial psychological milestone of $100,000 is expected to be reached in the upcoming weeks, and this breakthrough could happen as early as Thursday. It seems likely that this level will be reached. There is a chance that this new development will take place.

This task will be carried out against the backdrop of this historical era. In addition, if Trump were to win a second term, federal budget deficits would increase, inflation would likely increase, and the dollar’s position in international affairs would change.

The administration that Trump would run during his presidency would be responsible for these consequences. All of these characteristics would positively impact the value of Bitcoin as a currency if they were taken into account in the order that they are presented.

The price of bitcoin had risen by more than 130% by the beginning of 2024.

SOUREC: CNBC

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