Finance
UK National Debt Rises to the Highest in 62 Years
UK national debt grew this month to its highest level as a share of the economy since 1961, according to figures released on Friday, adding to the financial issues that the new administration will face when it takes office following a general election in two weeks.
The UK national debt, excluding state-controlled banks, hit 2.742 trillion pounds ($3.47 trillion), or 99.8% of annual GDP, in May, up from 96.1% the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The increase came despite somewhat lower-than-expected government borrowing in May, which was 15.0 billion pounds, compared to experts’ median projection of 15.7 billion pounds in a Reuters survey.
Following an election on July 4, Britain appears to be on the verge of a change of government, with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party leading Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in surveys.
During the COVID-19 epidemic, state debt in Britain skyrocketed, and the public finances have been hampered by poor growth and a 16-year high in Bank of England interest rates.
Western Nations Debt
Most other Western countries had significant rises in debt during the same period, although British debt levels are lower than those of the United States, France, and Italy.
A person enters the Treasury government building in London, Britain, on March 5, 2024. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Purchase Licensing Rights opens a new tab.
Borrowing in the UK totaled 33.5 billion pounds in the first two months of the fiscal year, 0.4 billion more than the same period in 2023 but 1.5 billion pounds less than government budget estimates expected in March.
Capital Economics consultants warned that the lower-than-expected borrowing figures represented less public investment and would provide little comfort to Britain’s future finance minister.
“They do little to reduce the scale of the fiscal challenge that awaits them, in part because of the upward pressure on the debt interest bill from higher interest rates,” said Alex Kerr, an assistant economist at Capital Economics.
Labour and the Conservatives want to keep to existing budget rules that require official estimates – most recently updated in March – to indicate that debt as a proportion of GDP is dropping in the fifth year of the forecast.
Higher interest rates than projected in March’s budget left Britain’s next chancellor with only 8.5 billion pounds of freedom to meet these standards, down from the historically low 8.9 billion in March, Kerr noted.
Both Labour and the Conservatives have committed not to raise income tax, value-added tax, or other major levies, but government budget predictions in March revealed that tax as a percentage of GDP was on track to hit its highest level since 1948.
Source: Reuters
Canada’s Household Debt Nears $3 Trillion Under Trudeau
Finance
Santander Consumer USA Chief Joins Auto Finance Summit
The Auto Finance News team is thrilled to announce that Erik Laney, chief financial officer of Santander Consumer USA, will participate in a one-on-one fireside conversation on May 13 at Auto Finance Summit East 2025, which will take place in Nashville from May 12 to 14.
Laney will highlight the financier’s strategy execution, technological developments, and prospects for a year characterized by presidential administration changes and uncertain retail dynamics.
The 2025 summit will bring together automotive lenders and dealers for panel discussions on tapping into subprime with machine learning and alternative data, auto refinance opportunities, and ensuring compliance under the new presidential administration, as well as unique networking opportunities provided by workshops, roundtable discussions, luncheons, and receptions.
Laney joined Santander Consumer USA (SCUSA) in December 2014. According to Laney’s LinkedIn profile, he previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and development, senior vice president and head of financial planning and analysis, executive vice president and head of corporate strategy, development, financial planning and analysis, and treasurer before taking on his current role.
From June 2008 to December 2014, he worked with JP Morgan in investment banking and capital markets.
According to the most recent Big Wheels Rankings statistics, SCUSA’s vehicle portfolio was worth $57.8 billion at the end of 2023, placing it as the eighth largest auto lender by outstandings.
About Santander Consumer USA
Santander Consumer USA assists consumers in obtaining finance for new and used vehicles, allowing them to go to home, school, work, and any other location they desire or require.
They are dedicated to providing exceptional service to our customers and working with them to improve their overall financial well-being.
They are also devoted to giving back to the areas where we do business by volunteering and providing financial support to organizations that have a positive, measurable, and long-term impact.
Every day, Santander Consumer USA strives to be an employer of choice, a place where all of our employees can grow, be seen and heard, and contribute to meaningful and fulfilling work.
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Finance
Canadian Dollar Hits Multi-Year Low Over Political Unrest
The Canadian dollar plunged even deeper against the US Greenback Thursday following the Trudeau government’s announcement of a $61.9 billion budget shortfall and the exit of Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister and finance minister.
The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest since March 2020, dropping 0.5 percent on Tuesday to trade past 1.43 per US dollar. It has dropped more than 7 percent against the US dollar this year, putting it on track for its worst performance since 2018.
The Canadian dollar appears to be losing ground due to the potential for a US-Canada trade conflict, significant cuts by the Bank of Canada, a bleak oil price outlook, and current political unrest.
The gap between the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate and the Bank of Canada’s rate has increased to approximately 130 basis points due to the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its policy rate by 50 basis points last week.
Interest Rates in Canada
Despite the possibility that the Federal Reserve may reduce its rate at its meeting this week, a substantial U.S. premium will continue to exist.
Interest rates in Canada will continue to be significantly lower than those in the United States for the foreseeable future, as they are dependent on policy rates.
This disparity will continue to pressure the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. greenback, as investors will continue to favour U.S. dollar-denominated assets with higher earnings over Canadian dollar assets.
If the Bank of Canada responds to Trump’s actions by making additional rate cuts, the loonie could also be further pressured downward by President-elect Trump’s threatened trade actions against Canada.
Contextually, on January 1, 2024, it cost 1.33 Canadian dollars to purchase one U.S. dollar instead of 1.43 Canadian dollars on December 13, 2024. This indicates a considerable decrease in the value of the Canadian dollar of approximately 7.6% during the specified time frame.
Capital Leaving Canada
In summary, it will elevate inflation through increased import prices and increased demand for domestic output and labour. Additionally, it may reduce productivity growth and exacerbate the reduction in living standards.
Investment in this category of physical capital is instrumental in stimulating productivity growth, as Canada imports most of its apparatus and equipment, including information and communications technology, from the United States and other countries.
The increased cost of capital equipment imports is due to the declining Canadian currency, discouraging investment and slowing productivity growth.
It may also protect domestic firms from foreign competition, reducing their motivation to invest in productivity-enhancing assets, even if they price their output in U.S. dollars.
According to foreign exchange analysts, the resignation of a prominent member of Canada’s government has introduced a degree of political uncertainty into financial markets. As evidenced by the recent experiences of the UK and Eurozone, political uncertainty can significantly impact currencies.
Finance
Trudeau Announces Staggering $61.9 Billion Budget Deficit
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government unveiled a stunning $61.9 billion year-end deficit just hours after Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet, sending shockwaves through Ottawa on Monday.
Trudeau’s spending spree created a larger-than-expected deficit in the government’s budget last year, raising concerns about the country’s fiscal health and laying the groundwork for a difficult economic landscape ahead.
Canada’s budget deficit for the fiscal year ending March 31 was $61.9 billion ($43.45 billion), more than half of what was forecast last year. However, it fell short of one of three key fiscal objectives that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland established.
This year’s fiscal report, the Fall Economic Statement, was substantially delayed, leading economists and analysts to speculate that the government would have exceeded its fiscal projections.
The update comes after Freeland resigned due to differences with Trudeau regarding government expenditure.
Freeland, the finance minister since 2020, said she had no choice but to resign after the prime minister approached her on Friday about shifting her to another cabinet position.
She also took a final shot at Trudeau’s handling of Canada’s economy, condemning Justin’s “costly political gimmicks” and urging him to collaborate with provincial premiers to face Trump’s tariff threat.
Trudeau Slammed Over Debt
In November 2023, Freeland predicted a deficit of $40.1 billion ($28.17 billion) in 2023-24 and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 42.4% in 2024-25 that would continue to fall.
She vowed to reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25 and to keep deficits under 1% in 2026-27 and subsequent years. While the government met its debt-to-GDP objective, its deficit-to-GDP ratio increased to 2.1% from 1.4% expected.
The government expects GDP growth to be 1.7% next year, down from 1.9%.
Meanwhile, opposition parties have expressed concern over the ballooning deficit, challenging Trudeau’s economic management and calling for stricter budgetary limits.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre slammed the government’s policy, saying, “Canadians deserve a plan that prioritises fiscal responsibility and economic stability, not a never-ending cycle of debt.”
Poilievre called on Trudeau to allow an immediate vote on the fall economic statement so that the government could be toppled, triggering an election. He stated that Freeland’s resignation demonstrates the government’s “spiralling out of control…at the worst possible time.”
“For the past decade, nine years, Freeland has been Mr. Trudeau’s most trusted minister. She knows him better than anybody else and recognizes that he is out of control.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh urged the prime minister to resign, saying “all options are on the table.” He did not say whether he meant supporting the Conservatives in a vote of no confidence.
The rapid succession of events also rekindled pre-existing tensions inside the Liberal ranks, with several backbencher MPs repeating their calls for the prime minister to go.
Trudeau will meet with the MPs later tonight. Dozens of them are anticipated to urge him he needs to quit for mismanaging his relationship with Freeland.
Liberal MP Wayne Long, who was involved in a prior attempt to unseat Trudeau, stated that around one-third of the 153 sitting Liberal MPs want the prime minister to resign immediately, another third are undecided, and the other third are self-proclaimed Trudeau supporters.
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