News
Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?
Inflation has decreased significantly from historically high levels in both the United States and Europe. However, the United States is seeing a delay in progress, as the Federal Reserve is currently anticipated to begin reducing interest rates after the European Central Bank.
In March, the annual US inflation rate, as assessed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% in February. The Federal Reserve’s objective is to maintain a long-term inflation rate of 2%.
The Consumer Price Index, another indicator of inflation in the United States, has also exhibited a similar increasing trajectory. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.5% in March, compared to the corresponding month in 2023. This is a rise from the 3.2% recorded in February.
Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?
Meanwhile, inside the group of 20 countries that utilize the euro as their currency, the annual consumer price inflation rate has consistently decreased since the beginning of the year. The percentage was 2.4% in March.
Market predictions suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to begin reducing interest rates in June, which is three months ahead of the forecasted rate decrease by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
There are even signs that the Federal Reserve may take action that, until recently, seems unimaginable – increase the interest rate for borrowing. In a recent statement, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed her support for a potential increase in interest rates if there is a slowdown or reversal in inflation.
What is the reason the United States has a more significant inflation issue than Europe?
Several economists contend that the disparity in inflation rates between the United States and Europe is insignificant, attributing it to a peculiar aspect of the measurement methods used in the United States.
Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?
In contrast to the European Central Bank’s preferred measure, both the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) take into account the expenditures associated with owning a home, which includes the potential rental income that could be earned if the property was rented out instead of being occupied by the owner.
The plan aims to monitor inflation in the real estate sector, considering the high rate of homeownership among Americans. According to Paul Donovan, the head economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, people actually need to experience these theoretical housing expenses.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) assigns a significantly higher weight to owner-occupiers’ housing expenses compared to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. Specifically, the CPI assigns a weight of 32% to these costs, while the PCE assigns a weight of 13%. In contrast, the eurozone’s primary measure of consumer prices does not assign any weight (0%) to owner-occupiers’ housing costs.
Simon MacAdam, deputy chief global economist at Capital Economics, argues that the recent discrepancies between US and eurozone inflation are magnified by this transatlantic discrepancy.
When employing an alternative metric that eliminates hypothetical housing expenses and incorporates additional modifications, MacAdam discovers that core inflation rates, excluding energy and food prices, have exhibited high similarity in the United States and Europe during the previous six months.
“Contrary to recent commentary, the United States does not have a fundamental issue of widespread and excessive price pressure,” he stated in a note last week.
Economies that are moving in different directions or diverging from one other.
If the levels of inflation are essentially comparable on both sides of the Atlantic, then why are their respective central banks planning to initiate interest rate reductions at separate moments?
In essence, as MacAdam succinctly stated, central banks would modify their monetary policies based on the specific measure of inflation they aim to control rather than relying on harmonized or adjusted measures.
However, the situation is more intricate than that. “The divergence between the two sides of the Atlantic, particularly in terms of economic growth, is significant,” stated Carsten Brzeski, the global head of macroeconomic research at ING, in an interview with CNN.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the US economy is projected to see a growth rate of 2.7% this year, while the eurozone is expected to expand by only 0.8%.
In March, US firms experienced a significant surge in hiring, with the addition of 303,000 jobs marking a historic milestone. The United States government has allocated significantly more funds than European governments in recent years to provide support for consumers and businesses throughout the pandemic, resulting in a sustained and strong level of consumer demand in the United States.
Although the initial figures on Thursday indicated a lower-than-anticipated growth rate for the US economy in the first quarter, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed to Reuters that the economy is still performing quite well.
Europe’s economy has been significantly weakened, partly due to the enduring effects of an oil crisis. Following Russia’s complete invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the prices of natural gas in Europe, which used to rely on Russia for almost 40% of its pipeline gas imports, skyrocketed to unprecedented levels.
Consequently, the eurozone experienced significantly greater annual inflation than the PCE. The two rates reached 10.6% and 7.1% in 2022, respectively.
Europe Is Beating Inflation. Why Can’t America Declare Victory?
According to Brzeski, the robustness of the US economy increases the probability of a significant resurgence of high inflation. This is causing the Federal Reserve to be more cautious than the European Central Bank in initiating interest rate reductions during the summer.
Both the United States and the eurozone are currently dealing with labor shortages. This has led firms to increase pay to attract and retain workers, which in turn is contributing to inflation in the services sector. However, in a broader sense, the demand from US consumers seems to be stronger.
“The savings ratio of US households is decreasing, indicating that people in the US are willing to use their savings for spending,” he stated. “Typically, European households tend to be more prudent.”
Davide Oneglia, the director of European and global macroeconomics at research firm TS Lombard, has a comparable perspective. “The US consumer is exhibiting a greater inclination to engage in spending due to a potentially improved outlook for their own employment situation,” he stated in an interview with CNN.
SOURCE – (CNN)
News
Man Creates Candy Cane Car to Spread Christmas Cheer
In a delightful display of holiday spirit, a local resident in North Providence, Maine, has transformed his vehicle into a candy cane delight that is capturing hearts and spreading Christmas Cheer.
Over the past 15 years, Dave Clayman has transformed a simple 1991 Toyota Camry into a rolling holiday icon that captivates everyone who encounters it.
It’s wrapped in $3,000 worth of reflective tape, the same kind used on trailer trucks. Whether parked at a mall or cruising down the highway, you can’t miss it with its candy cane decorations.
This whimsical project started with an unusual idea. When an old exercise bike landed in Clayman’s possession, he mounted it on top of his car instead of letting it gather dust in his garage.
“There’s nothing like working out in the fresh air,” Dave said. That quirky addition quickly drew eyes, inspiring him to keep going.
The car features homemade rockets built from trash cans and salad bowls, candy cane-themed hubcaps, and candy cane lights dangling from the mounted exercise bike.
The Candy Cane Car cost Clayman $3,000
To top it off, it boasts a PA system and a custom horn, making it a true sensory experience.
The candy cane car has now become a local landmark every Christmas. Parked outside Clayman’s house, it’s a favourite backdrop for people snapping photos or simply stopping to admire it.
Some visitors even share stories of seeing the car as a child, reminiscing about how it’s been a beloved part of their neighbourhood for years.
“When people see it, their mood amplifies,” Clayman explained. “If they’re happy, they become happier. If they’re upset, well, they sometimes get angrier.” But for the most part, he estimates that over 96% of people love the festive car, particularly around Christmas.
Clayman said he used to wear a Santa costume when riding in his festive car for years. A few years ago, he bought a Grinch costume and never looked back.
“It’s like a state of euphoria. Every time I get behind the wheel and people see it,” he said. “Anything that people are in a better mood, it seems to make you in a better mood. It’s a labor of love you got to be committed to it.”
Related News:
Costco Is Offering The Peloton Bike+ At 300 Locations This Holiday Season.
News
Senate Approves Social Security Fairness Act, Heads to Final Vote
(VOR News) – On Wednesday, the United States Senate Social Security passed a measure with a vote of 73-27, indicating that the legislation, which is co-sponsored by Senator Susan Collins of Maine, is likely to be implemented before the end of the year.
The law may be beneficial to personnel working in the public sector in Maine, including teachers, firefighters, and other workers.
The Social Security Fairness Act would repeal two restrictions that lower the amount of Social Security payments paid to public employees.
These regulations would be eliminated with the passage of the act. A provision known as the Windfall Elimination Provision makes it impossible for public employees who are currently receiving pensions to continue receiving them.
The Government Pension Offset, as it is commonly referred to, is designed to limit the amount of money that can be paid to the surviving spouses of recipients who are also receiving government pensions.
This problematic situation impacts Social Security benefits.”
In November 2024, the Social Security Administration reported that more than 2 million individuals, including more than 20,000 in the state of Maine, had their Social Security benefits reduced as a result of the Windfall Elimination Provision,” Collins stated in a statement that was released by her department.
In November 2024, the Government Pension Offset had an impact on more than 650,000 individuals, with more than 6,000 of those individuals residing in the state of Maine, according to the previously mentioned line of reasoning.
A vote of 327 to 75 was necessary for the measure to be approved by the House of Representatives the previous month. On Wednesday, Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader of the Senate, announced that he intended to work rapidly in order to deliver the act from the House of Representatives to the president’s desk.
As indicated by Schumer, who was speaking on the floor of the United States Senate today, “Passing this Social Security fix right before Christmas would be a great gift for our retired firefighters, police officers, postal workers, teachers, and others who have contributed to Social Security for years but are now being penalised because of their time spent serving the public.”
In the beginning, the measure was supported by two individuals: Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, and Collins, a Republican. During her speech in support of the proposal, which was made on the floor of the Senate on Wednesday afternoon, Collins stated that the idea will have a significant impact on a number of individuals, including teachers in the state of Maine.
These advantages are the direct result of the effort that they put forth. During the course of her remarks, Collins asserted that the punishment in question was both unreasonable and unacceptable.
This will strain Social Security’s already shaky budget.
In a recent examination, it was discovered that the Windfall Elimination Provision was one of the primary problems that contributed to the difficulties that the teacher workforce in Maine is experiencing, which experts are referring to as a crisis.
A poll that was conducted and released by the non-profit organisation Educate Maine found that teachers in each and every county in the state of Maine identified the provision as a hindering factor in the process of recruiting new teachers.
According to the findings of the study, “this federal policy that reduces social security payouts is a disincentive,” which implies that it is detrimental to teachers who take on additional work and discourages people from switching careers in order to become teachers.
Sharon Gallant, a retired educator who worked in Gardiner for a total of 31 years, is one of the educators that are now employed there. Prior to beginning his career as a teacher in the public school system, Gallant was employed in the business sector. He made a little contribution to the Social Security system during the entirety of this time period.
“When you move into public education, you are faced with a certain degree of punishment,” according to her statement.
In letters that Gallant sent to Collins and to Sen. Angus King of Maine, who is an independent, he urged both of them to support the concept. She stated that even if it is unsuccessful, Maine will still have a difficult time recruiting teachers because of the clause that deters them from employment.
She made the observation, “If this does not pass, then it is just another reason not to enter public service.”
SOURCE: FR
SEE ALSO:
The Federal Reserve Will Drop Key Rates, But Consumers May Not Gain Immediately.
Canadian Dollar Hits Multi-Year Low Over Political Unrest
News
The Federal Reserve Will Drop Key Rates, But Consumers May Not Gain Immediately.
(VOR News) – If the Federal Reserve indicates on Wednesday that interest rate reductions will proceed more gradually next year than in recent months, the United States may experience only slight alleviation from the persistently elevated costs of borrowing for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a quarter-point reduction in its benchmark rate, anticipated to decrease from around 4.6% to approximately 4.3%.
This represents the latest action undertaken, subsequent to a quarter-point cut in interest rates in November and a larger-than-usual half-point reduction in September.
The Wednesday meeting may mark a new era for the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is more inclined to adjust its monetary policy at alternate meetings, rather than at each meeting. The central bank policymakers may announce that they now expect to reduce their primary rate only two or three times in 2025, instead of the four reductions previously planned three months ago.
The Federal Reserve has utilised the rationale of a “recalibration” of ultra-high interest rates, originally aimed at curbing inflation that peaked at a four-decade high in 2022, to defend its measures thus far.
A considerable number of Federal Reserve officials contend that interest rates should not remain as elevated as they currently are, given the substantial decline in inflation. The Federal Reserve’s chosen index shows that inflation was 2.3% in October, a notable decline from the peak of 7.2% in June 2022.
Conversely, despite the swift economic growth, inflation has consistently exceeded the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for several months. The monthly retail sales statistics released by the government on Tuesday reveals that Americans, especially those with higher incomes, are inclined to spend liberally.
These trends, as per the views of several economists, suggest that further rate decreases could unduly stimulate the economy, perhaps leading to sustained high inflation.
The incoming president, Donald Trump, has advocated reducing taxes on overtime income, tips, and Social Security benefits, along with diminishing regulations in these domains.
When combined, these Federal Reserve practices can advance progress.
Alongside the threat of imposing various tariffs, President Trump has pledged to execute extensive deportations of migrants, both of which could exacerbate inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they cannot assess the potential effects of President-elect Trump’s policies on the economy or their own interest rate decisions until further information is available and the likelihood of the proposed initiatives being enacted becomes clearer.
Consequently, the result of the presidential election has predominantly led to heightened economic uncertainty up to that point.
It seems improbable that the United States would soon experience the advantages of significantly reduced loan interest rates. As of last week, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 6.6%, lower than the top rate of 7.8% recorded in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
It is quite unlikely that mortgage rates of approximately three percent, which were common for nearly a decade prior to the onset of the pandemic, would be restored in the foreseeable future.
Federal Reserve officials have indicated a deceleration in interest rate reductions as the benchmark rate nears what policymakers designate as a “neutral” rate, a one that provides neither advantages nor disadvantages to the economy.
During a recent meeting, Powell stated, “Inflation is slightly elevated, and growth is unequivocally stronger than we anticipated.” Nevertheless, the positive aspect is that we can afford to use greater caution while we persist in our pursuit of neutrality.
Most other central banks globally are likewise lowering their benchmark interest rates. This week, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year, from 3.25% to 3%.
This action was taken in reaction to the decline of inflation in the 20 euro-using countries, which has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 10.6% in late 2022.
SOURCE: AP
SEE ALSO:
Liberal MPs Call on Trudeau to Resign
ABC Gives Donald Trump’s Presidential Library $15 Million To Settle a Defamation Dispute.
-
Politics3 weeks ago
Miller Expects 4.9 Million Foreigners to Leave Canada Voluntarily
-
News3 weeks ago
Nolinor Boeing 737 Crash Lands in Montreal
-
News2 weeks ago
“Shocking Video” Vancouver Police Shoot Armed Suspect 10 Times
-
Tech3 weeks ago
Increasing its Stake in OpenAI by $1.5 Billion is a Possibility for SoftBank.
-
News4 weeks ago
Facebook Securities Fraud Case Dropped
-
Health4 weeks ago
A Canadian Teenager’s Bird Flu Virus Has Mutations